Aggregate earnings and voter preferences: Evidence from U.S. presidential election prediction markets

This study uses election futures market data to provide the first empirical evidence that aggregate earnings conveys timely "election-relevant" information affecting voters' preferences during U.S. presidential election campaigns. I document that aggregate earnings news is associated with multiple facets of U.S. economic health affecting voter utility. I then use novel high-frequency data from the Iowa Electronic Political Prediction Market to document that aggregate earnings news (and cash flow news in particular) is significantly related to the expected outcomes of U.S. presidential elections.