International conflict: An analysis of information, duration and recurrence

A current trend in international relations research examines war as part of some ongoing process. Contrary to the standard assumption, war is seen not as an end result but as some multi-stage process during which both negotiation and conflict are possible. Extensive theoretical work has been done in this area but little empirical testing exists. This project is an attempt to address the imbalance. It focuses on the way information affects conflict duration and conflict recurrence within a multi-stage framework. Parties fight because they disagree about the expected outcome. Fighting allows combatants to reveal relevant information to one another and as information is revealed, beliefs about the probable outcome converge. Logit and duration analyses are used to test hypotheses about information, duration and recurrence. Empirical findings confirm that previous conflict and high casualty expectations negatively affect the likelihood of conflict. Additional findings include mixed results for information transparency, characteristics of the previous conflict and timing between conflicts. This project raises various issues about the endogenous nature of costs, the structure of exiting fatality measures and the need to control for the rate at which information is revealed during conflict.