| Why do some civil wars persist for decades, while others peter out quickly? I argue that in order to understand this variation we need to examine how the interests and social constituencies of an armed group can shape its trajectory. I compare the trajectories of six armed groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 2003 and 2013, drawing on several years of qualitative field research.;I find that the more fragmented the belligerents are, in terms of their total number and their internal factions, the longer the conflict will last, and that each year that a conflict drags on, the more difficult it becomes to end it. The political culture of the conflict also plays a critical role, as the interests of both the state and armed groups have shifted to see the conflict as an end in itself and to perceive violence as an acceptable and necessary feature of politics. Finally, I develop a theory for how social constituencies shape negotiations between belligerents and the government by providing guarantees, brokering contacts, and presenting commitment problems.;These insights help explain why conflict has persisted for twenty years in the Congo and provide insights for conflicts in other weak states. |
