Exploring U.S. Coast Guard Organizational Preparedness Through Chaos and Complexity Theory: A Case Study

Chaos theory and complexity theory are complementary and when used together can offer a new and comprehensive perspective on organizational dynamics. Chaos theory provides an alternative model to forecasting than more traditional linear forecasting models based on history. Complexity theory can be used to understand and anticipate emergent phenomena that can create significant environmental change. Together, chaos and complexity theories analyze seemingly unpredictable events, randomness, and sensitivity to initial conditions and can be used to generate potential predictors of future needs and capabilities. The U.S Coast Guard has shown recently that it was not prepared for several unpredictable events that created national crises and exposed organizational shortcomings using existing strategic management and public policy processes. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore and generate a holistic theory that captured the Coast Guard's strategic management and public policy processes to improve the organization's preparedness for unpredictable events. The case study included rich interviews of strategic management and public policy staff members and reviews of existing Coast Guard policy and procedural documents related to strategy and public policy. The interviewees had primary responsibilities for strategic management and public policy at U.S. Coast Guard headquarters in Washington, D.C. The research findings identified several themes in the data that were consistent with chaos and complexity theories. The identified themes were linked through the lens of chaos and complexity theory to develop a holistic theory to improve Coast Guard organizational preparedness. The two components to the developed theory included a chaos and complexity based approach to environmental scanning and a complex adaptive system approach to intra- and inter-organizational dynamics. These two components to the theory were linked together in a cycle of continuous feedback. The implications of the developed theory highlight the relevance of chaos and complexity theories in the understanding of the external environment and improved inter and intra-organizational processes related to strategic management and public policy for the Coast Guard. Recommendations for future research included studying other emergency response organizations of varying size, studying a wider range and number of organizations, and a quantitative study to measure environmental complexity.