Statistical probability analysis for the estimation of hydrologic flooding

This dissertation describes the results of probabilistic flood hazard analyses for the Big Lost River watershed in Idaho as they impact the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory.;The study is probabilistic in that it investigates the impact of the joint probability of flooding from statistical combinations of warm spring temperatures and rainfall in the watersheds. Approximately seventy years of meteorological and streamflow records are examined in the analysis to estimate runoff hydrographs and associated flood elevation levels with exceedence probabilities of 0.01, 0.002, 0.001, 0.0001, and 0.000001 (10-5).;The bivariate analysis results produced can be used in hydrologic models to generate inundation maps. In this case, the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) was used as a tool to illustrate the applicability of the probabilistic analysis results.