| Screening weapon systems development projects is a complex, multi-criteria decision problem that must be accomplished within a constrained resource environment. This dissertation presents a hybrid decision support methodology for use in the screening of weapon systems development projects. The hybrid methodology integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with a binary integer portfolio optimization model. An AHP component allows the decision maker to incorporate qualitative and intangible criteria into the decision-making process and uses the priority rankings of the AHP to represent a measure of value in the binary integer model objective function. The hybrid methodology is extremely flexible, and the decision maker can tailor both the AHP and the binary integer optimization model to represent their specific decision-making situations.; To account for resource uncertainties often experienced within the weapon systems development process, the hybrid methodology was extended. In particular, a multi-period, two-stage stochastic binary integer optimization model was developed. Based on historical data and earlier research, potential budget fluctuation scenarios were developed and incorporated into the stochastic model. This extension provides the decision maker with additional insight into the effects of budget uncertainty and offers added robustness with regards to the selected portfolio.; To demonstrate the added value of implementing the hybrid screening methodology, a group of Air Force decision makers applied the hybrid methodology in screening a candidate set of Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) weapon systems development programs. Results of the C4I weapon systems validation exercise indicate that decision support provided by the methodology could lead to increased C4I portfolio values upwards of 58.5 percent. Finally, concluding remarks are offered and directions for future research regarding the screening process, cultural and management issues, and the methodology itself are discussed. |
