| Since the end of the Cold War, the central puzzle of alliance theory is no longer why or how do alliances form, but (1) why do some alliances persist beyond the conditions in which they were created and (2) of these, why do some evolve in new directions ? Traditional realist scholarship cannot account for the persistence or evolution of military alliances when threats recede. This dissertation devises a model of alliance institutionalization and norm formation to explain and predict these processes.; When multidimensional threats exist, states facing a common threat ally, but they formalize and institutionalize the alliance so it can better manage multiple threats. Institutionalization encourages conditions conducive to persistence and evolution in two ways. First, by facilitating consultation and cooperation, it increases transparency, improves the performance of the alliance, and makes it costly for allies to renounce commitments or otherwise abandon one another. Second, institutions foster norms that in turn induce a form of attachment, or "loyalty" to the institution.; The strength of the norms embodied in the alliance and the allies' assessment of performance determine the behavior of institutionalized alliances. The alliance persists unaltered when performance is satisfactory, but norms are weak. It evolves, or expands its purpose and activities, when satisfactory performance combines with strong constitutive norms. Erosion occurs when strong norms encourage allies to salvage a poorly functioning alliance by curtailing its scope. Dissolution takes place when unsatisfactory performance and weak norms fail to prevent exit.; The most significant findings of this dissertation are that given institutionalization and norms, states do not exit an alliance immediately following a significant alteration in the strategic context or a decline in performance, but they try to preserve it. Only when these efforts fail will they curtail or dissolve the relationship. The dissertation tests the model by engaging in a comparative analysis of Cold War institutionalized alliances: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Warsaw Pact, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, and the Australia, New Zealand, and U.S. alliance. Therefore, policy makers should not assume that evolving institutionalized alliances are adversarial or rush to respond with destabilizing counter alliances and, to minimize the possibility of conflict, allies engaging in evolution must clearly communicate their objectives to non-participants. |
