Development and application of a linked global trade-detailed United States agricultural sector analysis system

Four application studies are involved in this dissertation. The first study involved how to estimate the value of improved El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast both in the U.S. and ROW agricultural production. Simulation runs showed that, relative to no forecasting, ENSO forecasting would increase U.S. consumers' surplus, total foreign trade surplus, and total economic value while decreasing U.S. producers' surplus. Empirical results also show that the aggregate perfect ENSO forecasting is worth {dollar}1.41 billion annually, while explicit trade modeling and increased forecast benefit by {dollar}0.52 billion while only considering the ENSO effect on U.S. agriculture without detailed trade modeling.; The second study evaluates the economic impacts of the elimination of the U.S. farm program. The elimination of the U.S. farm program increases consumer market prices and expands ROW total export supply while it decreases crop production, export quantity in the U.S., and ROW trade commodities in total import demand. U.S. producers, consumers, and foreign trade country lost benefit without U.S. farm program while U.S. government could save about {dollar}11 billion cost. However, eliminating the U.S. farm program will cause price and welfare variation in the U.S. and ROW.; The third study involves how to measure the level and variability of price and welfare in the U.S. and the ROW from alternative uncertainty agricultural production. Empirical results indicated that most U.S. welfare variability is due to its own uncertainty production, while most ROW foreign surplus variation is due to ROW uncertainty production. The U.S. farm program and storage activity play important roles in reducing variability of price and welfare in the U.S. and the ROW.; The last study is to create a general imperfect spatial equilibrium model using the theory of conjectural variation to estimate the corn and wheat international marketing structures. Basically, the U.S. always behaved as a price taker in international wheat and corn exporting markets while Argentina behaved as an imperfect competitor in either HRWW or corn exporting market. The major grain importing country, Japan, always behaved as a monopsony in wheat and corn import markets.