Analysis Of The New U.S. Farm Bill's Impact On China's Agricultural Trade

The United States formally introduced a new farm bill in May 2008, the US government will provide about 286 billion U.S. dollars of agricultural subsidies to farms and new farmers, its three times about the original farm bill, This will have far-reaching influence in world agricultural markets In the global economy in crisis situations, Other countries are likely to change the domestic policies In order to protect their own interests, this will further deteriorate International trade environment, As America's main trading partners, the new farm bill will have a tremendous impact on China's agricultural trade, However, there is a problem that how to measure this impact accurately must be solved .This article will attempt to carry out a preliminary study on these issues.Due to different responses of the countries, the bill will make the world market have a certain degree of fluctuation in the short term, however, the new farm bill will increase the supply of world agricultural markets in general and pull down the prices of agricultural products, this will inhibit the development of China's agricultural trade, making the scale of imports may be further expanded and have a significant impact on the china's major agricultural products such as soy, wheat, rice and so on, weaken the competitiveness of these products, reduce export volumes even increase the import volumes. The export of labor-intensive agricultural products will also be inhibited. However, there will be a substantial increase in demand for the grain with the implementation of bio-energy bill, the international prices of agricultural products will be rising in the medium, which will benefit China agricultural export. However, there still need import large quantities products such as soy, soybean oil, which will be a heavy burden for china and disadvange of maintaining the stability of the domestic market.The article also analyzes the new farm bill's impact on China's agricultural trade and the environment in the new round of negotiations on agriculture policy. According to the article, in order to cope with the new U.S. farm bill's impact on China's agricultural trade, China should actively make use of WTO subsidies and anti-dumping rules, while strengthening regional trade negotiations and making the regional markets play a positive role in the agricultural trade. Speed up the domestic agricultural planting structure adjustment, promoting the sustainable development of agricultural trade.