Modeling land use conversion at the rural-urban fringe

This research developed statistical models of rural-to-urban land use conversion at the parcel and census block scales for a high growth area and a low growth area in the rural-urban fringe of Columbia, South Carolina. The time period for the research was 1990–1996. The statistical models sought to identify variables that were the best predictors of rural-to-urban land use conversion and to compare the results for the two spatial scales and the high and low growth areas. Developed and undeveloped land was defined from parcel assessed values, an approach not previously reported. Independent variables for the models were distance to interstates and highways, distance to public water and sewer lines, accessibility to major employment centers, 1990 parcel assessed land value/acre, distance to meaningful land cover change, and area of nearby meaningful land cover change. Meaningful land cover change refers to land cover change associated with land use conversion and was derived by the image differencing method of change detection using SPOT 10 x 10 meter panchromatic imagery.; Assessed land value/acre was the most important independent variable for predicting rural-to-land use conversion. Accessibility to water and sewer lines was important for development in both the high growth and low growth areas. The area of nearby meaningful land cover change appeared to be a good indicator of contagious diffusion of development when subdivisions were the primary form of development.; This research is one of the few studies to model rural-to-urban land use conversion using a large parcel database, without regard for whether parcel sale prices were known. The methodologies utilized in this research could be implemented to monitor rural-to-urban land use conversion on a periodic basis.