| The peri-urban areas is a key areas within the new round plan of city development, the usage of land is influenced by a variety of factors across the region, Land usage changes sharply in the sides of quantity, degree, Land use dynamic index (LUDI) and landscape pattern, etc.In order to find out the main driving factor and influencing factors which affect the land use change at its source, this research has been made. Based on the relevant data analysis, the tendency of land use can be predicted in a certain period of time, which can support for the district to develop reasonable land-use planning. Therefore, the research among the integration of urban and rural land use/cover change has become a hot spot in the domestic related field recently.In this article, the area has been selected belongs to the urban-rural fringe of Haikou, located in the coastal tourist area of Haikou, which is the key area of Haikou city during the new round of urban development, at the same time, the region is also the key area of ecological landscape protection. The study area includes core area, the coastal ecological landscape riverside ecological protection area and characteristics of common village in Hainan Province. As a consequence, the significance of the area land use/cover variation research on the sustainable development of Haikou city is profound.The image of1991,2001and2010was used as data sources, obtaining the information from eastern coastal zone of Haikou Nandu River in different periods of land use/cover, on this basis, the analysis of multi-period land use dynamic variation and internal driving force and the future trend analysis of land use has been made.The results show that:(1)Between1991-2001,the land-types variations mainly transfer to forest land, construction land and water zone, the small town scaled up;(2)Between2001-2010, the land-types change mainly transfer to garden land, construction land and water zone, the further development of urban scale can be summarized;(3)In the he period of1991-2010,which is very active time in urban sprawl process, land uses in the study area just come into high speed development time. Landscape patternshowed mainlyLandscape spread degrees tend to be scattered,the trend of the species diversity index is upward,the landscape stability is downward,the proportion of construction land and waters increased dramatically, all above mentioned suggested that landscape fragmentation has increased clearly (4)From1991to2010, the land use structure in the study area’s overall development is relatively steady.However, garden land, forest land and cultivated land transforming reciprocally frequently. This shows that the low level of market control power by farmers, the land circulation has been in a passive state; Urbanization process in the study area is one of the main influence of agricultural land to non-agricultural land driving factors, in addition, the environmental protection policy, demand-supply balance of arable land and construction land total control policy are the main driving forces to promote other land type dynamic change.(5)Combining the Markov model, Haikou Nadu River east coastal zone will be predictedabout the trend of land use. The results showed that, forthe future development of land use in the study area, the2028will be used as a cut-off point, before and after2028years ago, the study area of land use is still maintained rapid development, then entered the stage of steady development of land use, land use structure in the study area tends to be stable, but forest land is decreasing, urban ecological anti-interference ability is downward, the ecological risk is increasing. |
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