Power and influence in foreign policy decision-making: The role of junior parties in coalition cabinets

One type of minority actor that influences foreign policy in political systems is a junior party in a coalition cabinet in a parliamentary democracy. Although junior parties have less power than their senior partners, they do exert influence on foreign policy. This study examines the conditions under which junior parties can influence foreign policy decisionmaking outcomes. Using hypotheses from comparative politics which focus on the power and structural characteristics of the junior party, hypotheses from social psychology which focus on behavioral characteristics of minorities in small groups, and hypotheses from studies of bargaining and negotiation which focus on strategies, the study examines the importance and interrelationship of these variables for understanding junior party influence. To isolate and examine the processes of junior party influence, the study draws upon eight comparative case studies of foreign policy decisionmaking. The cases are of German and Israeli government foreign policy and the roles of the junior parties in their coalition cabinets. The hypothesized conditions for influence are compared across cases where the junior party was influential and cases where the junior party failed to influence the decisionmaking outcome. The central conclusions are that while some conditions such as junior party strength and party factionalism are held constant, the most important variables for explaining junior party influence are the unity of the junior and senior parties on the specific issue, junior party threats to leave the coalition, inconsistency in the senior party's position, and the locus of decisionmaking authority. A model of these conditions is offered and the implications for future research on junior parties, on minority influence, in comparative politics and on minority influence in foreign policy are outlined.