DUAL MANDATE: SAFEGUARDS AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY

An international regime to control the spread of civil nuclear technology came into being following 1953, and evolved toward increasing international collaboration until 1973. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is central to the regime. After 1973, political consensus over fundamental regime norms declined. Because of conflicts over norms and how they are to be implemented, the regime faces strong disintegrative forces.;The North-South clash is played out in the IAEA's safeguards and technical assistance programs. Conflicts over resource allocations to these two programs, and their development patterns, indicate the shape of, stresses and level of agreement within the regime.;The safeguards program has expanded most rapidly. It is limited more by resource scarcity than technological insufficiency. It is threatened by the reluctance of states to allow further intrusions on their sovereignty.;The technical assistance program is the second largest IAEA program. It grows more slowly than safeguards. Evidence from the two programs supports the view that the North's interests in control of nuclear technology increasingly dominate the regime.;Political and technological changes are crucial to the regime. There has been a shift from East-West to North-South confrontation. The North fears evolution into a Unit Veto international system. The South fears continued Northern hegemony and seeks international economic redistribution. The spread and increasing development of nuclear technology has exacerbated control problems. Evolution in safeguards techniques has made control possible.;States seek to maximize bargaining leverage in the regime by manipulating the bargaining environment and by linking and disconnecting issues. The Northern states have moved negotiations out of the IAEA, and sought to de-link some issues. The South has tried to keep negotiations as broad as possible both with regard to the number of states involved and the issues under discussion.;The steps that each side takes increase the other's perceptions of threat. After 1973, threats of weapons proliferation moved the North to seek a tighter control system. The South has continually demanded augmentation of technology transfers. Declining agreement over the shape of the regime and the nature of collaboration within it threatens regime disintegration.