The Effectiveness Of International Non-proliferation Regime - From The Perspective Of Security Guarantees And Security System Analysis

This thesis is to discuss the validity of The Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime (NNR) from the perspectives of the security assurances and safeguards. Some scholars and politicians have raised doubt about its validity, citing the DPRK's withdrawal from Nonproliferation Treaty and its nuclear test in 2006 as their arguments.The criterion of the NNR validity should be whether it could retard or prevent the Non-nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) from developing nuclear weapons. This retarding or preventing efforts of the regime aim at two dimensions: motivation and capability. This thesis tries to prove the validity of NNR by observing its discouraging effects on both the motivation and capability of a state to build nuclear weapons.Within the NNR, there are security assurances to reduce the motivation to own nuclear weapons. As the primary motivation for a state to develop nuclear weapons is national security, for nonproliferation to succeed, there should be alternatives for a state to guarantee its security. Security assurances are simply one of those effective alternatives.There are also safeguards to weaken or even remove the capability to build the Bomb. The availability of nuclear materials has become the greatest obstacle on a state's path to go nuclear after the basic design of a nuclear weapon is no longer inaccessible. Safeguards imposes restrict measures of material protection, control and accountability to ensure that the nuclear materials could not be used in building weapons.In the past, NNR has proved its validity. However, in face of new challenges, it needs further improvement and reinforcement, which requires the cooperation between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states. To achieve that, U.S.A., as a hegemon that has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, should conclude a legal-binding security assurances document to assure the NNWS. After analyzing America's possible cost and profit from its conclusion of such a document, this thesis considers that it is essential for the nuclear nonproliferation regime that the security assurances issue be solved satisfactorily. And if America takes the right step, the regime will be reinforced and the growth of its validity will continue.