An expert system for statistical analysis in simulatio

Simulation is one of the most widely used techniques in operations research and management science. A survey taken from a random sample of 500 corporate executives, representing the largest American-operated corporations, disclosed that simulation was the second most frequently used technique in carrying out current projects. Efforts on a number of fronts are being made to enhance the usefulness of simulation as a tool for system analysis. Graphical input, animation, automated program generation, model management utilities, and user interactive environments all address the issues of ease of use. Even with the current emphasis in this regard, simulation suffers from several shortcomings which preclude even greater application of the methodology. One of the more significant limitations is the dependence of simulation on statistical methodologies.;The major objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive view of the statistical aspects of simulation. Eighteen important statistical issues a simulation analyst must consider in conducting a simulation study are identified and investigated in terms of statistical formulas, statistical tests, and methodological approaches.;A second objective of this study is to show that artificial intelligence can be successfully incorporated in simulation techniques to help simulation users grasp statistical aspects inherent in simulation and to apply available statistical techniques appropriately to their simulation analyses. An expert system which through interactive dialog with simulation analysts offers advice on statistical approaches which might be used to deal with particular issues and to accomplish required statistical computations was developed. The system developed for this research currently addresses ten different statistical issues, which are used most frequently in simulation analysis.;This study provides a comprehensive reference to the statistical problems in simulation. And it also provides a new approach to incorporating artificial intelligence in statistics. Finally, the expert system could do much to ensure that simulation studies incorporate appropriate statistical approaches thereby assuring that inferences and conclusions drawn from such studies are more accurate than at present.