The California Economy and Crime Rates from 1980 to 2015: An Analysis of the Impact of Economic Recessions on Crime and the Public Fear of Crime

Over the past two decades, the U.S. national crime rate declined to historical lows and the 2015 U.S. crime statistics revealed overall crime decreased during the Great Recession. The contemporary notion that unemployment served as the primary factor for increased crime was not rational as crime fall during the Great Recession with the highest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression. This conflicted with the public sentiment that crime increased during the Great Recession with higher levels of fear. Prior studies are mixed whether crime increased during recessions and what caused the dramatic crime decline between the 1990s to 2015. The purpose of research effort was to examine California crime rates and the impact of the public fear of crime during five recessions from 1980 to 2015. Many factors were examined to gain an understanding of what caused the dramatic crime drop and the analysis included unemployment levels, policing strategies, arrests, technology advancements, as well as the California incarceration rates that had reached its highest level in U.S. history at the onset of the Great Recession. A direct examination of California crime rates, economic conditions, and the fear of crime provided an analysis of nearly 500 cities, operating collectively as charter or general law municipalities, functioning under the same state constitution, government policies, and laws. This research effort concluded that crime increased during past recessionary periods; however, the Great Recession remains an anomaly as crime did not increase from 2007--2009. Other discoveries included the dramatic impact of incarceration rates and youth populations on crime as well as the effect of the Gross Domestic Product rate and unemployment on overall crime---with an enhanced understanding of the influence of economic recessions on the public fear of crime.