| Counterfactual thinking is a complex way of describing how we think and the triggers that determine our thought processes in making a decision or taking a stance. Most of us relate to inductive and deductive reasoning in order to take a position related to an incident that happens--what a person hears, sees, and is involved in somehow. Understanding this is at the very core of rhetoric--how we communicate to others. The importance of understanding counterfactual thinking is significant in the study of forensic rhetoric; more specifically in closing arguments that take place either in civil or criminal trials.;The purpose of this research was to examine whether a closing argument, which was constructed for this study, made a difference in determining a verdict and level of persuasion. This study was designed to take a random sample of people who were qualified to be a potential juror to examine whether a closing argument with counterfactual statements, such as "what if" and "if then" was any different when the counterfactual statements were removed. The study consisted of 104 participants who qualified as potential jurors and who agreed to read a closing argument and then respond to two questions the researcher wanted to explore based on solely the closing argument they read. The survey questions were simply stated to ask if the participants believed the defendant was guilty and, secondly, how persuaded the participants were by the argument they read.;The results of this study did not produce statistically significant results and were not consistent with previous similar studies using counterfactual theory as it applies to closing arguments and decision making in jury deliberations. This study contained eleven counterfactual statements made in one argument and none in the second argument.;Based on research to date, there was enough reason to believe a closing argument could sway a jury. The study raises questions concerning the level of details and strength of an argument and delivery (written or oral) of incorporating counterfactuals in closing argument. These questions give credence to continued study on the impact of verdicts and how accurate they may be.;Key Words: Counterfactual Thinking, Counterfactual Theory, Closing Arguments, Jury Deliberations, Counterfactual Thinking and Law, Social Psychology and Law, Group Decision-Making, Decisional Regret Theory. |
