PREDICTION OF ADULT LEARNER DROPOUT USING A PSYCHOSOCIAL SYSTEM MODEL

Studies of dropout have repeatedly shown a variety of nonschool related reasons for not presisting in the formal learning setting. However, some researchers have questioned the validity of those findings. In order to better understand and predict dropout in adult basic education, this study identified two questions. The first concerned whether a hypothesized typological structure of a complex array of psychological correlates of dropout was isomorphic with a set of empirical referents. The second question concerned the ability of the independent variables (factor scores) identified in the first part of the study to predict persistence/dropout.;Common factor analysis of 18 psychosocial variables included in the model led to the identification of five factors congruent with the hypothesized adult learner-enviroment typology. Calculated factor scores were then used as measures to predict dropout for a sample of adult basic education students. The external tension and constraint variables were significant predictors of dropout. When manifest variables were used as predictors, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale (life changes) and self control were found to be significant predictors of dropout and they accounted for 15.6% of the dropout variance.;The conclusions were that the adult learner-environment typology showed promise in ordering the many variables. In addition, confirmation was provided for previous research that identified socioeconomic variables as significant barriers to continuation in a formal adult basic education program. The recommendation for the practioner was to begin to direct attention to variables exogenous to the learning setting. For the researchers, the suggestion was to design studies with both learning setting and psychological variables as predictors of dropout in the quest to determine relative predictability.;General system theory formed the basis of an abstract social system model to view the adult learner and the corresponding environment. This model in turn was used to help identify the adult learner-environment typology hypothesized in the first stage of the study. The five factors identified were labeled internal and external tensions, capabilities, and internal and external constraints. Variables representing the structural catagories of the typology were then combined linearly as the resilience model used to predict persistence/dropout.