AN IDENTIFICATION OF FUTURE TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT UPON SECONDARY AND POSTSECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IN WISCONSIN

The problem of this study was to forecast technological trends which will have an impact upon Wisconsin secondary and postsecondary vocational education from the early 1980's through the year 2000. A three-round Delphi technique was used to obtain consensus on (1) the likelihood that Wisconsin vocational educators would need to make program planning decisions about a list of technological trends, and (2) the time when program planning decisions would need to be made about the listed technological trends.;A systematic representative sample was drawn from a defined universe of experts. The Delphi respondents represented the following nine categories: (1) Non-Educators. (a) Agriculturists; (b) Business and Marketing Industrialists; (c) Family Service Professionals; (d) Government Planners; (e) Health Industrialists; (f) Manufacturers. (2) Educators. (a) Secondary Vocational Education Administrators; (b) Postsecondary Vocational Education Administrators; (c) Continuing and Vocational Education Teacher Educators.;A total of 107 respondents returned the Round Three questionnaire. The mean and standard deviation for each item on the likelihood scale and on the time scales were calculated. Those trends which had 1.250 or less standard deviation on either scale were included on a list of trends for which vocational educators would need to make program planning decisions and the time when they would need to make the decisions. The trends which had a high likelihood of need and urgent time of need fell into the following categories: (1) agriculture; (2) communication; (3) computer science; (4) health science; (5) mechanization; (6) power transmission; (7) transportation.;After the final round an analysis of variance among four of the groups within the population found that there were significant differences of opinion on several trends. However, the findings were questionable because the assumption of normal distribution was violated.;The researcher developed an instrument to measure the central tendency (or consensus) of the selected experts who identified anonymously the technological trends which Wisconsin vocational educators would need to make program planning decisions about in the future. The mean and standard deviation for each item were reported to the respondents after the first and second rounds in order to indicate the degree of consensus on the items.;It was concluded that the Delphi technique is a manageable process for predicting trends which will have an inpact upon education. As a result of the study, Wisconsin vocational educators have a point of departure for program planning decisions. It was recommended that the Delphi technique continue to be used as a vital step in educational planning.;It was recommended that Wisconsin vocational education planners take steps to use the list of technological trends on which there was respondent consensus. These trends could be examined according to plans developed in the Wisconsin State Plan for Vocational Education. The trends could be listed according to educational programs which are affected by them, along with general and specific decisions which will need to be made.