All or Nothing? The Varied Benefits of Sub-Baccalaureate Credits and Credentials in a College-for-All Era

Large increases in postsecondary enrollment, coupled with more modest growth in rates of bachelor's degree completion, have contributed to a sharp rise in the share of young adults with some postsecondary experience but no four-year degree---a level of education broadly categorized as "sub-baccalaureate". Based on survey and postsecondary transcript data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort, this dissertation assesses 2008-2011 wage and employment returns to education for a sample of men and women enrolling in college beginning in the late 1990s, addressing the question: What is the payoff to sub-baccalaureate education in a college-for-all era?;In a departure from most national studies on the topic, I assess per-credit economic returns in addition to returns to postsecondary credentials, given the large and growing number of young adults who attend college but do not attain a credential of any kind. I additionally explore differences between Hispanic and white individuals in the economic returns to sub-baccalaureate education, as well as potential variation in returns by pre-college academic preparation.;I find a fairly consistent and substantial economic payoff to sub-baccalaureate credentials, with higher relative returns for women and with larger returns to two-year associate's degrees than vocational certificates. Economic returns to postsecondary credits for non-completing students are less certain and vary notably by gender, ethnicity, and pre-college preparation. On average, women enjoy around a 5% return in wages per year of credits completed at two-year or four-year colleges, whereas men experience a non-significant average return of 1% from a year of credits earned in baccalaureate institutions and a non-significant 1.5% decrement in relative wages from a year of two-year credits. Sub-group analyses suggest that Hispanic men benefit significantly more than white men from associate's degrees and four-year credits without completion, and that the most academically prepared men appear to experience a large wage penalty (-10%) from earning two-year credits without completing a credential. Taken together, my findings suggest that college may be an all-or-nothing economic proposition for many young adults today.