Study On Measurement Of Coal Overcapacity And Withdrawal Mechanism

2002?2011 is the most prosperous "golden decade" for the coal industry.The high profits of the industry attracted a lot of investment.The number of new coal mines increased and coal production capacity expanded rapidly.However,since 2012,the economy has entered a period of medium-high growth.The decline in the growth rate of industrial added value has led to a slowdown in consumption demand for coal.In addition,facing severe environmental problems and huge pressure of carbon emission reduction,the government has put forward the requirements of optimizing the energy structure and developing non-coal energy,which further reduces the demand for coal.A large amount of investment in the early stage led to the centralized release of coal production capacity,coal supply was greater than demand,coal supply and demand were seriously imbalanced,coal overcapacity problem was prominent.Oversupply caused coal prices to fall sharply.From 2012 to June 2016,coal prices continued to fall and industry losses continued to expand.In order to improve the economic operation of the coal industry,in February 2016,the State Council issued "the State Council's opinions on solving the problem of excess capacity in coal industry",and put forward the requirements of eliminating backward capacity,strictly controlling new capacity and withdrawing from excess.Affected by the capacity policy,coal prices gradually returned to a reasonable range,and the economic situation of the coal industry began to improve.Determining the degree of overcapacity in the coal industry,putting forward the criteria and mechanism for the withdrawal of overcapacity,measuring the impact of the policy on the output and economic conditions of the coal industry,is conducive to recognizing the actual capacity utilization of the coal industry and making clear how much capacity should be removed,to find out which coal mines should quit and what the order should be,to find out the way of reducing capacity,to solve asset?debt and staffing,to make clear the way of social stability and sustainable development after the withdrawal of capacity,to understand the implementation effect of policies and clarify the problems of policy formulation and adjustment.This paper focuses on four issues:how much capacity to go,how to reduce capacity,the effect of capacity policy and safeguard mechanism.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the research background of coal supply and demand,coal price,industry operation and overcapacity.According to the problem and task,relating domestic and international literature review.The literature mainly includes five aspects:definition of overcapacity,measurement of overcapacity,excess capacity withdrawal evaluation,policy effect assessment,excess capacity withdrawal mechanism.Research on measurement of excess coal production capacity.This paper summarizes the applicability,advantages and disadvantages of the excess-capacity measurement method,collects the panel data of 25 coal-producing provinces in China from 2002 to 2016,and constructs a coal excess-capacity measurement model based on the panel data surpassing the log-cost function.It calculates the production capacity of 25 coal-producing provinces and the whole country in China from 2002 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 in sections.Then it is concluded that the cyclical changes in the capacity utilization rate of the coal industry are more obvious,and the changes are basically consistent with the characteristics of the industry and the economic cycle.The average capacity utilization rate of "Golden Decade" from 2002 to 2011 was 80.96%,which was within the normal level.The average capacity utilization rate in 2013?2016 was 69.63%,and the production capacity was in excess.Finally,based on the calculation results,the results of the de-capacity of China's coal industry and the problems of the de-capacity of China's coal industry are analyzed.Research on evaluation of coal excess capacity withdrawal.The paper defines the scope of coal excess capacity withdrawal,studies the influencing factors of coal excess capacity withdrawal,determines the influencing factors of resource endowment,production safety,mining technology,eco-environmental protection and operating efficiency.Based on this,an evaluation index system of coal excess capacity is established.This paper constructs the coal excess capacity withdrawal index,uses the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight,and uses the VIKOR multi-attribute evaluation method for comprehensive evaluation.And verified by 35 coal mines of Yangquan Coal Industry Group Co.,Ltd.,sorting 13 coal mines in Class A non-removing sequence and 22 coal mines in Class B recommended capacity series,using cluster analysis method for VIKOR the data obtained estimates cluster analysis,and based on estimates and VIKOR clustering results,scientific and reasonable suggestions to improve coal production and the degree of excess capacity are put forward.Research on the effect of coal excess capacity withdrawal policy.The paper analyzes the de-capacity-related policies issued at the national and local levels,and summarizes the actual de-capacity of the national and coal-producing provinces from 2016 to 2017 since the release of the self-production capacity policy.It constructs a panel data single difference method model,and studies the average impact of the de-capacity policy on the capacity utilization rate of the coal mining and washing industry in China and the economic growth of the industry.It has concluded that the implementation of the de-capacity policy has led to an average increase in capacity utilization of coal mining and washing industry by 4.6%,which has led to an average increase of 10.36%in the industrial output.A double difference model is constructed,with the top 10 major coal-producing provinces in China as the treatment group and the other provinces as the control group.The heterogeneity impact of the capacity-removal policy on the capacity utilization rate of the coal mining and washing industry and the economic growth of the industry in China is studied.It is concluded that the policy has no significant impact on the heterogeneity of productivity utilization rate,and has significant impact on the industrial economic growth.Compared with other provinces,the policy has increased the output value of coal mining and dressing industry by 13.77%.Research on the exit mechanism of excess coal production capacity.The framework model of coal production capacity exit mechanism is constructed.The problems of current asset disposal mode,debt disposal mode and employee resettlement mode are analyzed.The asset disposal,debt disposal and employee resettlement modes are designed,and relevant suggestions are given.Two types of fixed assets disposal modes,including entry trading and leasing,and two types of intangible assets disposal modes,including non-public agreement transfer and replacement are proposed.The paper puts forward three kinds of debt disposal modes:bankruptcy liquidation,debt restructuring,and market-oriented debt-to-equity swap.It proposes internal circulation through the original unit employment,internal retirement,internal transfer,special disease staff placement,and on-the-job training,as well as the retiring and resignation,the employment resettlement mode of dismissal,termination of labor contracts,self-employment,self-employment and resignation,and participation in external job recruitment.The paper analyzes the excess capacity exit mechanism with taking Yangmei Group as an example.The main innovations of this paper are:(1)A coal overcapacity measurement model based on panel data surpassing logarithmic variable cost function is established.The capacity utilization rate of coal industry in China and provinces from 2002 to 2016 is measured,and the fluctuation law of coal capacity utilization rate in China is revealed and the extent of overcapacity in coal is determined.(2)The coal surplus capacity exit evaluation index system is constructed,and the calculation model of coal excess capacity exit index based on VIKOR is established.The coal surplus capacity exit index of Yangmei Group is calculated,and the decision-making method of coal excess capacity exit order based on cluster model is proposed.(3)A panel data single difference model and double difference model are established.The average impact and heterogeneity impact of the coal de-capacity policy on capacity utilization rate are quantitatively calculated.The single-difference and double-difference model of the de-capacity policy on the economic growth of the coal industry are established,which verifies the effectiveness of the coal de-capacity policy.(4)The framework model of coal excess capacity exit mechanismis constructed,and the asset disposal,debt disposal and employee resettlement modes and suggestions are put forward,and the exit plan of excess coal production capacity of Yangmei Group is designed.