| With the technology maturity,cost reduction,and scale expansion of renewable energy power generation industries such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation,the bottleneck of the further development of renewable energy power has changed from the constraint of technological equipment and construction capacity to that of system construction and market mechanism,which is mainly reflected in the difficulty of consumption and subsidy gap of renewable energy power generation.Under this background,the renewable portfolio standards and tradable green certificates system have been implemented successively in China.At present,China has carried out voluntary transaction of tradable green certificates,but due to the lack of mandatory quota constraints,the liquidity of tradable green certificates transaction market is seriously insufficient.Therefore,the compulsory tradable green certificates transaction needs to be implemented.A reasonable transaction mode can not only guarantee the profits of renewable energy manufacturers and release favorable signals to potential investors,but also help guide the market subjects to form scientific trading strategies.Based on the consideration of the above issues,this paper systematically studied the bilateral transaction mode and trading strategies of tradable green certificates,aiming to use system dynamics,game theory,and decision theory to explain the effectiveness of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction,explore the bilateral transaction mode of tradable green certificates,and formulate bilateral trading strategies of tradable green certificates.The research work and results of this paper are as follows:(1)The research on tradable green certificates bilateral transaction mechanism.First,the status of voluntary green certificate trading in China is analyzed based on China Green Power Certificate Subscription Trading Platform.Second,the applicability of the green certificates centralized transaction mode and the bilateral transaction mode is compared.Third,based on the current relevant policies of tradable green certificates in China,the system dynamic model of green certificates bilateral transaction is established by analyzing the green certificates bilateral transaction rules,the influence factors of the green certificates bilateral transaction prices,and the interaction between the green certificates bilateral transaction and the power transaction.The results show that:1)The bilateral transaction mode is an effective trading mode in the current market environment.2)Bilateral transaction of tradable green certificates helps to promote the consumption and investment of renewable energy.3)The increase of quota increases the transaction price of tradable green certificates and promotes the growth of renewable energy installed capacity.The extension of validity period of tradable green certificates increases the volatility of transaction price.As an incentive mechanism,fine has little effect on bilateral green certificates transactions.(2)The research on green certificates bilateral transaction mode.Based on cooperative game theory,first,the utility function of the green certificates bilateral transaction bodies is analyzed.Second,a two-stage game model of Stackelberg and Nash bargaining is constructed.Third,this paper compares and analyzes the game equilibrium results under two kinds of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction modes,and further discusses the advantages of the tradable green certificates bilateral transaction mode based on cooperation.The results show that:1)Compared with the transaction mode under Stackelberg game,the tradable green certificates bilateral transaction mode based on Nash bargaining game has advantages,which improves the social welfare by guiding the reciprocal cooperation of the transaction subjects,thus improving the effectiveness of the tradable green certificates bilateral transaction.2)The quasi parameters of tradable green certificates system calculated with the goal of maximizing social welfare can provide reference for policy makers.Specifically,the benchmark price of tradable green certificates is 333 yuan/MWh,and the technical conversion coefficients of hydropower,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation are 1,1.2 and,1.5 respectively.(3)The research on the two-person bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction.To solve the two-person bargaining problem of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction,a two-person bargaining model based on Fuzzy Bayes learning is constructed,and the bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction is studied.The results show that:1)Based on Fuzzy Bayes learning,the two-person bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction considers the benefits or risks of both parties to improve the acceptance of the quoting,so as to promote the main body to reach cooperation quickly and effectively,thus improving the negotiation efficiency.2)The results of the transaction meets the Nash bargaining solution under the cooperation mode of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction,which improves the effectiveness of bilateral transaction.3)Compared with the strategy of simultaneous quotation,the negotiation efficiency of alternative quotation is relatively high,and the transaction subject should strive for the initiative of the first quotation as much as possible to improve its profit space.(4)The research on the multi-person bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction.On the basis of the research on the two-person bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction,this paper deeply studies the multi-person bargaining strategies,puts forward the benefit distribution scheme under the "one to many" and "many to many" alliance mechanisms based on the improved Shapley value method,and explores the rationality and fairness of the transaction strategies.The results show that:Considering the bargaining power,credit risk and the stability of renewable energy output based on the contributions of alliance members,the multi-person bargaining strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction is reasonable and fair,thus ensuring the stability of the alliance.In conclusion,the tradable green certificates bilateral transaction mode proposed in this paper is the tradable green certificates bilateral contract bargaining mode under the guidance of policy makers.The trading strategies are the negotiation strategies of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction.The specific performance is that when the two people negotiate the price,both parties of the transaction consider the other party's gains or risks while enhancing their own interests or reducing their risks to ensure that the other party can accept their own quotation and reach cooperation,and finally ensure the smooth negotiation of the contract.In multi-person bargaining,the contribution of each member of the alliance is considered based on the bargaining power of the transaction subject,credit risk of the transaction subject,and the stability of renewable energy output to distribute the interests of all parties fairly and reasonably,so as to ensure the stability of the alliance and ultimately promote the smooth progress of bilateral transaction.The main innovation points of this paper are as follows.First,based on the system dynamic model of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction,the effectiveness of tradable green certificates bilateral transaction is explored,and on this basis,the green certificate bilateral transaction model under the Starklberg game and the Nash bargaining game are analyzed and clarified.The superiority of the bilateral transaction mode based on the cooperation of green certificates is analyzed.Second,a two-person bargaining model for green certificate bilateral transaction based on fuzzy Bayesian learning is constructed,and a two-person bargaining strategy for green certificate bilateral transaction under both quotations and simultaneous quotations is proposed.Third,based on factors such as the bargaining power of the trading entity,the credit risk of the trading entity,and the stability of the renewable energy output,a profit distribution scheme based on the improved Sharpley value method under the "one-to-many" and "many-to-many"alliances was proposed.Analyzed the multi-person bargaining strategy for green certificate bilateral transactions. |
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