| Known as "industrial black gold",graphite,which is mainly divided into two categories:crystalline graphite and aphanitic graphite,plays an important role in the modern industrial system.China is the world's largest graphite producer,and its current output accounts for about 60%of the world.With the in-depth exploraation and utilization of resources,the contradictions between the limited reserves of natural graphite and the rapidly increasing market demand,strict environmental protection policies and extensive mining methods,increasing technical requirements and relatively lagging technology research and development become increasingly acute.Grasping the development trend of the natural graphite industry in a scientific and relevant way to realize the sustainable development will be one of the important issues of our economic and social development in the future,and hence it has attracted wide attention across the academic circle and the graphite industry.This paper studies the law of development in the graphite industry from both the supply and demand side.From the supply side,this paper reveals the fluctuation pattern of the graphite production cycle on the basis of the development history of graphite industry;at the demand side,quantitative methods are used to forecast the demand volume and structure.Based on the theme of sustainable development of our natural graphite industry,combined with natural resources,production capacity and continuous development needs,as well as the analysis of current policies,this paper provides suggestions for the sustainable development of the industry.The main contents are as follows:First,this paper shows the basic pattern of production and sales development cycle of the natural graphite industry at home and abroad after analyzing the trend of changes in the production cycle.The filter method is used to analyze the production data of 40 consecutive years,and the results show that the curve of production-and-sales cycle at home matches that of abroad,with an approximately 10-year time span for a trough and a 12-year period for a peak within a cycle.At present,at home or abroad,since the graphite industry has just pasted an extremum value on the curve,it is expected to enter a relatively stable period of development in the near future and chances of an inflection point showing up are slim.Second,A forecast of the demand for graphite in order to meet the needs of our future economic and social development has been carried out,including:the total demand for natural graphite and the demand for various types of natural graphite in some important sectors.The key factors affecting the demand for natural graphite are studied,and four key factors including the level of economic development are determined and subdivided into 12 quantitative indicators accordingly,and the corresponding quantitative relationships are presented.The Dematel method is adopted to analyze the influencing factors,and it shows there are four key factors,namely,economy,technology,related industry development and policy influence.These factors are subdivided into 12 quantitative indicators,and regression analysis is used to calculate the indicators.The results show that for crystalline graphite,the key indicators are the number of patents,production of lithium battery and sales volume of electric vehicles;for aphanitic graphite,they are crude steel production and the price of high-quality anthracite.And GDP has obvious influence on both types of graphite.Third,the potential analysis of the sustainable development of the industry is carried out,and based on this,it is proposed that the substitution of high-quality anthracite for aphanitic graphite and artificial graphite for crystalline graphite should be fully considered.Then ways to promote the sustainable development of the natural graphite industry is put forward.Fourth,the keyword frequency statistical method is used to analyze the focus and role of our original policies on graphite industry management,and combined with the aforementioned research results,the development suggestions for the natural graphite industry are given from two dimensions:horizontally,from the perspectives of the industry itself and the perspectives of the industrial chain,ideas to support sustainable development and expand the industrial chain of high-tech materials are put forward;vertically,suggestions for the development path under a timetable are provided.This paper provides support for the decision-making of the sustainable development of our natural graphite industry. |
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