Research On The Evolution Mechanism Of Takeoff And Landing Safety Risks For Seaplanes

In recent years,with the gradual opening of low-altitude airspace,China’s general aviation ushered in a flourishing era.Seaplane has become a key development area of China’s general aviation industry because of its low dependence on resources.However,frequent unsafe incidents and security incidents have restricted the development of seaplanes to some extent.The analysis of seaplane insecurity and safety accidents in recent years shows that accidents occur mostly in the take-off and landing stages and the risk factors causing accidents are complicated,which makes it difficult to safely manage seaplanes.In order to clarify the evolutionary law of safety risk of take-off and landing of aquatic aircraft and improve its safety management level,this dissertation comprehensively uses complex network theory,propagation dynamics,evolutionary game theory and other related theories and methods to study the evolution mechanism of seaplane takeoff and landing safety risk.The main research contents of this dissertation include the following aspects:Firstly,the concepts of take-off and landing safety risk and risk evolution of seaplane are defined,and the relevant theories are sorted out.The risk factors of taking-off and landing safety of seaplanes were identified by using the grounded theory,and the concept model of risk factors were constructed.Secondly,based on the conceptual model of risk factors,the questionnaire of the seaplane take-off and landing safety risk was designed.Structural equation model was applied to reveal the path of risk factors to the safety of taking off and landing Thirdly,the right-oriented network topology structure of the seaplane take-off and landing safety risk evolution was constructed based on the action path between risk factors,the scale-free characteristics of the complex network was verified.The node degree centrality,betweenness centrality,closeness centrality and comprehensive value were applied to identify the key risk factors from different perspectives.The MATLAB was used to analyze the functional robustness and structural robustness of the network under random and deliberate attacks.The robustness effects of degree attack,betweenness centrality attack,closeness centrality attack,comprehensive attack were contrasted,the key risk factors were identified and the chain-breaking control strategy was proposed.The link prediction method was used to predict the edges of the uninterrupted nodes in the network to enhance the influence of the chain-breaking control strategy.Fourthly,according to the analysis of the infection delay effect of seaplane take-off and landing security risks,the risk-infected delay model(D-SEIRS)on scale-free networks was constructed.The stability of the equilibrium point of the model was analyzed by the Routh-Hurwitz criterion,and the steady-state density and the basic regeneration number of the model were solved.The MATLAB software was applied to simulate the model to reveal the dynamic contagion law of the safety risk of seaplane take-off and landing.Target immunization strategy is proposed to control the spread of safety risks during takeoff and landing of seaplane.Fifthly,based on the analysis of the characteristics of seaplane takeoff and landing safety supervision,an evolutionary game model of takeoff and landing safety supervision on complex networks was constructed.The network structure,cumulative revenue weight parameters,cost-benefit ratio,and rewards and punishments of regulators were simulated and analyzed in the model.Based on the analysis results,the countermeasures for controlling takeoff and landing safety risk were formulated.The main innovation points of this dissertation include:the mechanism between the risk factors of seaplane takeoff and landing safety is revealed,enriching the research on the relationship between the safety risk factors,and making up for the deficiencies of the existing research;the evolution law of the safety risk of seaplane takeoff and landing on complex network is clarified,providing a new perspective for the study of the evolution law of the take-off and landing safety risk of seaplanes;the D-SEIRS model of the safety risk contagion of seaplane takeoff and landing is proposed,achieving a new breakthrough in the dynamic study of safety risk of seaplane;the evolutionary game model of the safety supervision of seaplane takeoff and landing based on complex network is constructed,which broadens the research thinking of the takeoff and landing safety risk supervision of seaplane.