Study On Risk Evolution Of Deepwater Shallow Drilling

Deepwater drilling is a high-tech,high-investment and high-risk systematic project.With the continuous development of deepwater oil and gas exploration and development,ensuring the safety of deepwater drilling process has become the key to the development of deepwater oil and gas resources.Deepwater drilling process has more risk factors due to its harsh marine environment,special geological conditions and remote offshore features.In the event of an accident during deepwater drilling,it will not only cause delay of work time,delay construction progress and environmental pollution.Therefore,carrying out the risk analysis of deepwater drilling process is of great significance to ensure the safe and efficient construction of deepwater drilling.Offshore oil and gas development started earlier,and its deepwater oil and gas resources development technology is also more mature,deepwater drilling risk analysis and evaluation of more research,the domestic deep-water oil and gas resources started late but rapid development in recent years,but for Risk analysis of deepwater drilling process is relatively limited,so this article through the statistics of deepwater drilling accident data at home and abroad combined with expert experience,the establishment of a hierarchical analysis system using MATLAB software to calculate the actual analysis of risk factors for shallow drilling in the South China Sea deepwater drilling process,Initially identified the key risk factors for deepwater shallow drilling.In this paper,catastrophe theory is applied to the risk assessment of deepwater drilling,and a catastrophe evolution model based on system theory and catastrophe theory is established.According to the cause of accident,the cause of risk accident in deepwater shallow drilling process Subjective factors and objective factors,this paper analyzes the evolvement process of risk accident in deepwater shallow drilling process from the unsafe behavior of human and the unsafe condition of material,and at the same time,establishes the risk evolution evolvement of deepwater shallow drilling which includes five layers and 71 indexes.The results show that the evaluation model for the evolution of the risk of deep-water shallow drilling is basically consistent with the actual situation of the drilling process of the well,which verifies The feasibility of this model to evaluate the abrupt change of deep water shallow drilling risk evolution was established.Based on the analysis and comparison of risk analysis methods,it established a key risk evolution model of deepwater shallow drilling based on accident chain and Bayesian network.The priori probability of risk inducement was calculated by OREDA statistical data and established by GeNIe software The blowout accidents caused by shallow geological disasters,riser failure and BOP failure Bayesian network model to calculate the posterior probability of the underlying risk factors,the use of Bayesian network influence analysis to calculate the different risk evolution path The main risk sources and the risk evolution paths with the highest probability of occurrence are the blowout accidents of shallow geological disasters,riser faults and blowout preventer faults.