Study On Regional Carbon Abatement Mechanism And Management Strategy Within The Context Of Cost Analysis

With increasingly prominent climate change problems in recent years,reducing the carbon dioxide emissions in atmosphere has been a consensus all over the world.As a kind of by-products of economic outputs,there is no doubt that the reduction in carbon emissions will negatively impact the economic development and social welfare of a country or region,consequently resulting in abatement cost.Currently,as the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world,China has confronted the huge pressure of carbon abatement.Moreover,China is also in the process of rapid development,related carbon abatement mechanisms and schemes are not pretty completed,and the cost-effectiveness of carbon abatement is relatively low.As a result,drastically reducing carbon emission will inevitably result in heavy economic cost,and decrease of social welfare.In terms of the specific problems China has confronted in the process of carbon emissions reduction,this thesis mainly focuses on the design of carbon abatement mechanism within the context of abatement cost analysis,which intends to provide theoretical and decision support on relieving climate change,decreasing abatement cost.Towards the national strategic demands of relieving climate change,and international frontier of design of carbon abatement mechanism,this thesis mainly focuses on the design of carbon abatement mechanism within the context of cost analysis.After the literature review,the thesis follows logic line “how to design carbon abatement targets from the perspective of cost analysis---how to allocate carbon abatement targets---how to choose the abatement ways”,and systematically employs data envelopment analysis approach,parametric directional distance function approach,multi-criteria decision analysis theory and econometrics to investigate the design of carbon abatement targets,allocation of carbon abatement targets,and choice of abatement ways within the context of abatement cost analysis.Some innovative results are summarized as follows:(1)Based on some literature,this thesis clarifies the influence path of regional economic integration on regional difference of carbon marginal abatement cost from the perspective of production and consumption sides,and then investigates the impact of regional economic integration on carbon marginal abatement cost by employing One Price Law and directional distance function models and theory of econometrics.Regional disparities in carbon marginal abatement cost puts forward higher request on carbon abatement mechanism design and furthermore,these disparities also result in the cost difference in different abatement mechanisms.After reviewing current studies,this thesis clarifies the influence path of regional economic integration on carbon dioxide abatement cost from the perspective of consumption and demand sides,and then constructs regional economic integration and carbon marginal abatement cost index based on one price law and directional distance function models.The empirical results show that regional economic integration indeed results in the increase of carbon marginal abatement cost to some extent under 5% significance level.Furthermore,the results are robust to the choice of samples and goods.(2)This thesis proposes fractional programming models of carbon intensity reduction potential evaluation,based on the theory of production probability set,and makes a case study of China by combining meta-frontier analysis approach.In relative to traditional directional distance function model,the estimation results of this model don't rely on the choice of directional vector,which is helpful for evaluating the carbon intensity reduction potential more objectively.Empirically,the thesis evaluates the reduction potential of carbon intensity of 30 provinces.In the process of evaluation and analysis,the thesis combines multifrontier analysis and meta-frontier analysis,which helps to effectively capture the impact of technological difference on carbon intensity reduction potential,and provides some positive suggestions on how to decrease carbon intensity reduction potential and improve carbon emissions efficiency.(3)This thesis establishes models of economic and energy saving gains evaluation of regional carbon quota allocation,based on the theory of Shapley information entropy,multicriteria decision analysis(MCDA)and data envelopment analysis,and conduct a case study of China,evaluating the economic and energy saving gains of various carbon quota allocation strategies from perspective of cost benefits.According to the empirical results of 30 provinces over 2012-2015,it can be easily found that different carbon quota allocation strategies have different economic and energy-saving gains,and strategy based on multicriteria decision analysis approach has the highest economic gains,approximately 3.552-3.876%,and 2.781-3.217% of energy saving.Consequently,this thesis provides some theoretical support on how to allocate carbon abatement targets.(4)This thesis proposes models to estimate the cost saving of regional collaborative carbon abatement,and firstly integrates the Shapley value approach into cost saving estimation models,so as to provide allocation scheme of cost saving of collaborative carbon abatement.The empirical results of China show that regional collaborative carbon abatement indeed saves abatement cost,and improve the cost-effectiveness.Specifically,63 collaborative abatement scenarios in 2009 could on average lead to 5.1% potential regional domestic production increase.Compared to individual carbon abatement,national collaborative carbon abatement could lead to 9.3% gross domestic production increase.By investigating the contribution of all regions in national collaborative carbon abatement with Shapley value approach,it can be found that different regions always have different contributions,and the contribution of Central China and Northeast China is relatively large.