Analysis Of The Possible Effects Of PM_2.5 Air Pollution On Respiratory Diseases In Nanjing

With the accelerated industrialization and urbanization in China,PM_2.5 pollution is becoming more and more prominent,causing serious impacts on the quality of life of residents,and has become a focal issue of concern for all sectors of society in recent years.This paper uses air pollution data,health data,meteorological data,socio-economic data and population data to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of PM_2.5 in China and Nanjing,explores the correlation between air pollution factors and respiratory diseases,the lagged relationship between PM_2.5 pollution and respiratory disease outpatient volume was studied,and the daily respiratory outpatient volume in Nanjing was simulated by training a deep learning model,then the outpatient volume of respiratory disease in Nanjing from 2021 to 2035 was predicted,and the influencing factors of PM_2.5 pollution were analyzed.to provide a basis for rational deployment of medical resources,effective control of air pollution,and scientific formulation of relevant policies and regulations.The results of this study provide a decision basis for rational allocation of medical resources,effective control of air pollution and scientific formulation of relevant policies and regulations.The main findings are as follows:（1）The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of PM_2.5 in China and Nanjing were analyzed.The serious PM_2.5 pollution regions in China were the North China Plain,Middle and Lower Yangtze River Plain,Sichuan Basin,Qaidam Basin,Tianshan Mountains,Hexi Corridor,and Hetao Plain.From 2000 to 2018,the vast majority of densely populated areas in China experienced a process of PM_2.5 pollution aggravation followed by mitigation,and the PM_2.5pollution areas in China generally showed a trend of decreasing in area and concentration after2014.The spatial distribution of PM_2.5 pollution in Jiangsu Province is higher in inland areas than in coastal areas,and higher in northern areas than in southern areas.Xuzhou and southern Jiangsu were two pollution centers.After 2014,the PM_2.5 pollution in Jiangsu Province has improved significantly,especially for the southern Jiangsu pollution center;The dominant factors of PM_2.5 pollution in Jiangsu Province were studied.Anthropogenic activities are the dominant factors leading to PM_2.5 pollution in Jiangsu Province,and the influence of meteorological elements is exceedingly small.Among the anthropogenic influencing factors,social progress,energy use and transportation are the three main influencing factors.From 2000 to 2014,PM_2.5 in Nanjing generally showed the distribution characteristics of higher in the south than in the north,higher in the urban area than in the suburbs,with the main urban area and Gaochun district in the south were two pollution centers.After 2014,PM_2.5pollution in Nanjing improved significantly,especially in the southern area and the urban area,where PM_2.5 pollution improved most significantly.The PM_2.5 concentration in Nanjing had a significant seasonal effect,PM_2.5 pollution in winter,early spring and late autumn was more serious than that in summer and early autumn;the PM_2.5 pollution concentration had a U-shaped distribution during the 12 months of a year,with the highest PM_2.5 concentration in January and December and the lowest in August;the peak PM_2.5 concentration in a day mainly appeared at8-9 a.m.and 21-23 p.m.（2）PM_2.5 was identified as the air pollution factor with the highest association with respiratory diseases in Nanjing,and PM_2.5 pollution had a lag time of about 2-8 years for deaths from respiratory diseases in Nanjing.（3）Each 10μg/m3 increased in the daily average PM_2.5 concentration in Nanjing increased the risk of respiratory disease by 0.11 times,and most patients visited hospitals for respiratory disease 2 to 4 days after the onset of PM_2.5 pollution.The risk of respiratory diseases due to PM_2.5 pollution was higher in men than in women;the risk of respiratory diseases due to PM_2.5pollution was highest in children aged 0-14 years,and lower concentrations of PM_2.5 also caused respiratory diseases in children;followed by elderly people aged 65 years or older,and the lowest risk in people aged 15-64 years.（4）For future,reduce PM_2.5 concentration could significantly reduce the predicted outpatient volume of respiratory disease.The constructed LSTM model was tested to have a good simulation effect on the daily respiratory disease outpatient data of a tertiary A-level hospital in Nanjing in 2015.The R² for the simulation of all respiratory diseases was 0.7319.The predicted volume of respiratory disease outpatient visits in a tertiary A-level hospital in Nanjing from 2021 to 2035 showed that reducing PM_2.5 concentration could reduce the volume of respiratory disease outpatient visits,and the most predicted volume of all respiratory disease outpatient visits in 2035 under different scenarios is SSP3-7.0,which is about 84,000,and the least is SSP4-3.4,which is about 66,000.