Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Of Indium In China

Indium has an important application in high technologies and is an indispensable raw material to support the development of strategic emerging industries.The world's major economies have identified indium as critical mineral.Under the background of energy transformation,the demand for indium is expected to continue to grow,and indium may become the focus of resource competition in the future.China is a big country of indium resources,production and trade.It is of great significance to deeply analyze the flows,stocks and utilization efficiency of indium resources in China,grasp the future development trend,and then put forward policy suggestions for China's indium resources management,so as to realize the sustainable development of indium industry.Based on a large number of literature research,this paper firstly introduces the development status of indium industry in detail,and clearly describes the life cycle process of indium.Secondly,it constructs the dynamic material flow analysis model of indium resources at the national level,quantitatively analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of indium in the process of production,processing,use and waste management from 2000 to 2019,and calculates the change law of flows and stocks.By using the stock driven model and scenario analysis method,this paper simulates the flow situation and supply and demand trend of indium in different scenarios from 2020 to 2050,and simulates the influencing factors on both sides of supply and demand.It also discusses the improvement effect of different policy options,and selects the best policy options for the healthy development of indium industry.The uncertainty analysis of data quality shows that the research results are relatively reliable and can be used as the basis for management decision of indium industry.The main understandings and conclusions are as follows:(1)Since 2000,consumption of refined indium in China has grown rapidly,but the consumption level is still low,accounting for 11% of the global consumption in 2019.There are abundant indium resources in the world,with the exception of China,Australia,Chile,Bolivia and other countries containing a large amount of indium resources.The global primary indium supply is mainly concentrated in China and South Korea in 2019,with proportion of 39% and 31% respectively.While the supply pattern including secondary indium is different and South Korea(32%),Japan(30%)and China(29%)are in tripartite confrontation in 2019.Although there are many kinds of raw materials of indium extraction,the supply of primary indium mainly comes from zinc concentrate.Zinc production activities have an important impact on the supply of primary indium.(2)The comprehensive recovery rate of indium in the production process is about21%,and a large amount of indium is lost in the process of mining and beneficiation.The imbalance between supply and demand leads to 3316 tons of refined indium inventory in the domestic market;China has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of indium;from 2000 to 2019,the in-use stock of indium and the per capita in-use stock of indium in China's economic and social system has increased from 22.7 tons to 537 tons,0.02g/person to 0.38 g/person,respectively,and there is still much room for growth in the future.The scrap amount of indium increases year by year,but under the current technical and economic conditions,indium in scrap products has not been recovered.(3)Under the two scenarios of "below 2 ?" and "2DS",both the in-use stock of indium and the actual demand for indium will maintain a significant growth.Limited by the raw material supply of zinc concentrate and the current recovery level,the growth space of indium supply is small,and the gap of indium supply and demand in the future is very large.The situation of short supply and demand will exist for a long time.(4)The improvement effect of the supply-side policy is not ideal.Firstly,the supply growth space of zinc concentrate is limited.Secondly,the content of indium in the end products is very low,and the large-scale recovery can not be realized immediately due to technical and economic factors.Demand-side policy can significantly reduce indium demand,but only the combination can effectively alleviate the shortage of supply and demand in "2DS" scenario.The simulation results of comprehensive policies on both sides of supply and demand are the best,which can not only reduce the dependence on primary ore,but also improve the level of indium recovery and utilization.Only making overall consideration of supply and demand can better ensure the healthy development of indium industry in China.Therefore,the following policy suggestions are put forward: paying attention to the comprehensive recovery and utilization of indium,broadening the supply source of primary indium except zinc concentrate;improving the recovery and utilization rate of indium in the production process;improving the utilization efficiency of indium in ITO and CIGS processing and manufacturing process,strengthening the research and development of high quality ITO targets and recovery technology of indium in electronic waste,and improving the level of secondary resource utilization.