Research On Key Technology For Warship Reliability Analysis Aiming At Top-Level Parameters

With the development of the science and technology, tactic and technical performance of the warship equipped with a lot of advanced system and weapon are greatly improved. How-ever, good technical performance is not equal to strong combat capability. The strong combat capability is the organic combination of good technical performance and high reliability. The necessary conditions for obtaining a high reliability is implementing reliability project systematically. Warship is a typical complex system with multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic. The traditional technologies have lots of maladjustment in warship's reliability analysis.In this dissertation, staring with the top-level reliability parameters, namely mission reli-ability and inherent availability, the key technologies for warship's reliability analysis were studied. The objective of the study is to get through the bottleneck problem of warship's reli-ability technology, and provide necessary theoretical basis and technical support for developing the warship's reliability project.The main contributions of the study can be concluded as:Constructing a system and solving three specific problems.1) Accordingg to status that the research on the technology of warship's reliability analysis is unsystematized, this dissertation put forward that research on the technology of warship's reliability analysis should centred by top reliability paramemters, which is not the starting point,but also the stay point of the research. Thus, a system guiding the research on technology of warship's reliability analysis is constructed, that is“warship overall—system-- warship overall”.2) Accordingg to that the top reliability parameter of the warship not only involving the factors of reliability, but also the factors of maintainability, a comprehensive reliability and maintainability allocation method, which is suitable for the warship's reliability allocation, is suggested. The method proposed can efficiently solve the synergetic problem of the reliability parameter and maintainability parameter. 3) In order to solve the multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic of the warship during the reliability analysis, a new method based on Bayesian Network (BN) was presented. In this method, BN model is used to depict the multi-phase mission and dynamic characteristic of the warship. The prognostic inference of the BN is employed to implement the reliability prediction and the diagnosis inference of the BN is used to perform the importance analysis and fault diagnosis. The method proposed not only effectively overcomes limitations of the tradi-tional reliability analysis method in model description, but also remedys its defects in algo-rithm.4) Due to the limitations of the traditional reliability assement method which is only suitable for system with and single-phase mission and static characteristic, this thesis proposed a new method based the BN and numerical simulation for reliability assement of the warship. The proposed method provides a solution to the reliability assement for static system, dynamic system and multi-phase mission system.