| The report to the 19th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)pointed out that China should accelerate the reform of ecological civilization system,build a beautiful China,promote the revolution of energy production and consumption,and build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system.As a major energy consumer,building a modern energy system is one of the important tasks of China's energy development strategy in the next five years.How to effectively utilize abundant wind,light and biomass resources,replace fossil energy such as bulk coal,increase the proportion of renewable energy in urban energy consumption,and solve the major livelihood issues of power supply,heat supply and gas supply in urban population gathering areas,has become a hot and difficult issue in the current construction of green energy system.Therefore,it is urgent to build an integrated energy system with coupling power supply,heating/cooling and gas supply in urban areas,so as to realize the complementarity and substitution of various energy sources and promote the nearby consumption of renewable energy,then the demand of urban population agglomeration will be met and the reliability of energy supply will be improved.With the continuous progress of China's electricity selling side market reform,comprehensive energy service providers becomes a new type of market subject of investment,construction and operation of multi-energy complementary system.Its investment income will affect the final decision of service providers.Due to the uncertainty of renewable energy power generation,the diversity of multi-energy complementary system operation mode and the variability of price competition between different interest subjects,the investment income of comprehensive energy service providers is affected by the consumption status of renewable energy,equipment configuration,system operation mode and energy sales price.Therefore,in this paper,based on the theory of electric power market,energy economics,through the method comboining the theory modeling,the empirical analysis,statistical investigation and field research,according to the research train of thought of "urban can complement each other,the source-net-load-store synergy",taking energy system in urban area utilization efficiency as the goal,the comprehensive energy service provider of optimal investment system and pricing decision method is constructed.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper introduces the basic meaning,application scenarios,relevant policies and typical cases of the multi energy complementary system,designs a multi energy complementary system framework to meet the energy demand and reliability of energy supply in urban agglomeration areas,defines the investment objectives of the comprehensive energy service providers,designs the business pricing ideas,and develops the investment and pricing decision-making methods for the comprehensive energy service providers considering the characteristics of the multi energy complementary technology Provide theoretical basis.(2)When building a multi-energy complementary system with abundant wind and light resources in cities and towns,the investors should first consider the impact of local consumption of renewable energy on investment returns.Before determining the investment,it is necessary to make qualitative,quantitative and objective analysis and assessment on the planning and equipment construction of local renewable energy power generation system,so as to ensure the best grid connection and absorption of renewable energy in urban areas and the best investment income.A two-stage stochastic programming model of electricity-heat-gas combined supply system is proposed,aiming at maximizing the grid absorption of renewable energy power generation such as wind and light in urban areas.In the first stage of this model,the optimal investment decision-making model of system equipment that can meet various requirements for power supply is established.In the second stage,operating constraints such as gas pipe network and power transmission power are taken into account to establish the coordinated operation method of system equipment with the lowest operating cost.In order to verify the effectiveness of the two-stage stochastic programming model,the optimization results of the single-stage stochastic programming model and the proposed model are compared and analyzed.It is found that the two-stage stochastic programming model has better investment cost and operation cost,and more renewable energy generation capacity can be absorbed.(3)As a coupling element between electric energy and hydrogen,electric gas conversion equipment can convert surplus wind and light resources into electric energy through the generator set,and then water can be converted into hydrogen through electrolysis to provide fuel for hydrogen fuel vehicles or heating systems.At present,the investment cost of power to gas equipment is relatively high,so it is necessary to analyze the capacity configuration of power to gas equipment and its influence on the investment decision of the multi-energy complementary system according to the requirements of different users of electricity,heat and gas energy.Therefore,a hybrid integer programming model for facility configuration and investment decision of multi-energy complementary system based on power to gas equipment is constructed.This model takes the construction of the electric-to-gas equipment and its multi-energy complementary system as the target with the lowest annual comprehensive cost and the highest net present value,and takes into account the constraint conditions such as renewable energy conversion efficiency,energy balance between supply and demand,and equipment operation.The applicability and validity of the model are verified by case analysis.(4)Based on the investment decision of the above-mentioned single and multi-energy complementary system,the regional centralized management of "source-net-charge-storage"can be realized for the interconnection and mutual supply of electricity-heat-gas comprehensive power supply equipment owned by different urban communities.Through the coordination and scheduling of multi-energy complementary equipment shared by urban areas and owned by communities the total investment cost of the system will be reduced.Therefore,considering a series of uncertain factors such as wind-driven power generation output,power load and electricity price,a two-stage optimal scheduling model of multi-energy complementary system with high proportion of renewable energy is proposed.Through collaborative optimization of hour-level time scale and minute-level time scale of community shared equipment and independent system equipment,this model eliminates the influence of random and disturbance factors in the system step by step and achieves the safe consumption of high proportion of renewable energy.In addition,in the optimal scheduling model,the Markowitz mean-variance theory is used to propose the risk characterization of profit function and accurately describe the impact of uncertain factors on equipment investment cost.Finally,an example shows that the proposed model can effectively reduce the risk and the influence of uncertain factors caused by equipment investment.(5)As the operating entity of the multi-energy complementary system,the comprehensive energy service provider sells the electric energy produced to the end user.When the electric energy is surplus or insufficient within the system,the service provider sells or purchases the electric energy from the wholesale market.How to set the selling price of electricity between service providers and downstream end users is the core of enterprise operation decision.Moreover,due to the randomness of renewable energy power generation output and end user load demand,there is a deviation between the actual electricity purchased by comprehensive energy service providers from the wholesale market and the electricity bidding before.This deviation will bring penalty cost to comprehensive energy service providers.For this reason,considering the dispatchable resources of end-user controllable load,a segmented compensation pricing model of power supply and gas supply to end-user by comprehensive energy service providers is proposed.A 1-k Stackelberg master-slave game model is established to take into account the economic benefit of comprehensive energy service providers and the demand response benefit of controllable load users,and the inverse inductive method based on genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the problem.Finally,through the example simulation,the varying relationship between the operating income of comprehensive energy service providers and the power adjustment quantity of controllable loads is compared and analyzed under the condition of segmental compensation electricity price and fixed compensation electricity price.Moreover,the influence of different gas prices is presented on the income of comprehensive energy service providers and controllable loads.(6)With the full opening of the electricity selling market,a "multi-seller-multi-buyer"power supply pattern has been formed.There are various trading modes between the comprehensive energy service providers and different interest subjects of the upstream,such as power distribution companies,power selling companies and large power generation enterprises.For this purpose,a Stackelberg game optimal pricing model for the purchase and sale of electric energy between upstream and downstream enterprises is established by taking into account the asymmetry of cost information of different interest subjects and aiming at the maximization of their own interests by comprehensive energy service providers and upstream enterprises.The pricing strategy of electricity is proposed for the direct sale of electricity by large power generation enterprises to comprehensive energy service providers and for the indirect sale by power distribution companies to comprehensive energy service providers,respectively.A pricing model based on the revenue sharing contract between comprehensive energy service providers and large power generation enterprises is proposed to give the maximum profit under the condition of asymmetric information and complete information.Through the analysis of large-scale power generation companies and distribution companies and integrated energy services cost information and electricity sale price,it is found that the enterprise cost price information asymmetry distribution company is not conducive to large comprehensive energy power generation enterprises and service providers,and electricity sales price will as the uncertainty of cost structure and increase the distribution company. |
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