Technology Optimization And Investment Decision Of Integrated Energy System Under The Background Of Incremental Power Distribution

The new round of power system reform liberalizes incremental distribution business furtherly and encourages social capital to actively invest,construct and operate incremental distribution networks.Faced with more diversified market competition,on the one hand,utility companies urgently need to perform benefit risk assessments on incremental distribution networks.It will improve investment risk avoidance and optimize investment costs.On the other hand,utility companies should reasonably invest,plan and operate integrated energy system which is regarded as the key development areas of utility companies’ value-added services.It could promote the transformation of traditional power grid enterprises to comprehensive energy service providers.Therefore,it is necessary to study the benefit risk assessment of incremental distribution networks and the investment planning and operation strategy of integrated energy system,which have guiding significance to improve the investment optimization ability of utility companies.This dissertation has conducted a series of researches on the benefit risk assessment of incremental distribution networks,the technology optimization of integrated energy system and investment decision of integrated energy system under the background of incremental power distribution.Main contents of this dissertation are shown below.(1)The benefit risk assessment of incremental distribution networks based on value at risk.Firstly,based on the concept of full life cycle,the cost-revenue model of incremental distribution network is constructed.It systematically considers the factors that affect the operational benefits of incremental distribution networks.Then value-atrisk is introduced to quantify the investment risk of utility companies in incremental distribution projects,which considers electricity consumption,maintenance rate and other uncertain factors.Finally,the actual incremental power distribution pilot is selected for case analysis.It is shown that the proposed method could assist utility companies to make reasonable decisions when investing in incremental power distribution projects.(2)Study the technology optimization of integrated energy system based on planning and operation joint optimization.Firstly,the basic structure of the integrated energy system is proposed,and the energy equipment and energy transmission network are modeled.Then,taking the minimum annual comprehensive cost as the optimization goal,a joint optimization model of integrated energy system is established.The model comprehensively considers the planning and operation constraints of the integrated energy system.Finally,the model is solved and the technical optimal plan with better economic index is selected.The results of the calculation examples prove that the proposed technology optimization method is feasible and the economics of solving the optimal solution is good.(3)Study the investment decision-making method of integrated energy system considering uncertainties.Firstly,the interval number is used to describe the uncertainty of energy prices and loads.An interval optimization model of integrated energy system considering uncertainties is proposed.Then,the interval optimization model is solved by two-stage decomposition method.Finally,comprehensively considering the average annual cost and carbon emission cost,the TOPSIS method is used to select the best plan with good economy and environmental protection.