Research On Operation Optimization And Risk Evaluation Model Of Gas-electric Coupling Virtual Power Plant

With the continuous development of fossil energy,the global atmospheric carbon dioxide emission has reached the highest level in history,and the emission intensity has increased year by year,which has brought serious challenges to the sustainable development of the future world.There are many problems in the application projects of traditional virtual power plants,such as single energy structure,insufficient participation in the market,sparse energy coupling relationship and lack of new load,which lead to poor operation stability,low economic benefit,and difficult risk management of traditional virtual power plants.In this context,the concept of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant has gradually become an important technology for the development and application of distributed energy in the future.Through the further aggregation of gas-electric conversion equipment such as power to gas device(P2G)and gas-fired boiler equipment,the utilization efficiency of distributed renewable energy units has been improved,and the impact of output uncertainty on system stability and economic operation has been reduced.However,the current research on operation control and market operation of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant is still lacking,which can not effectively coordinate multiple types of flexible resources into the virtual power plant to support the scheduling optimization and market operation decision-making of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant.Based on this,it is urgent to consider multi-uncertainty,electric vehicle characteristics and comprehensive demand response characteristics to carry out operation optimization and risk assessment of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant,so as to provide powerful power for flexible resources such as multi-type distributed energy,controllable load,electric to gas coupling equipment to participate in virtual power plant scheduling,and effectively support the collaborative operation of power system and virtual power plant,improve the economic benefit and operation efficiency of the virtual power plant.Firstly,based on the basic theory,operation operation characteristics,internal and external operation optimization rules,domestic and international application projects and related theories of gas-electric virtual power plant,the importance and necessity of the research on operation optimization of gas-electric virtual power plant are pointed out.Firstly,around the basic concept,development process and main types of gas electric coupling virtual power plant,the basic theory of gas electric coupling virtual power plant is expounded;Secondly,in order to achieve the operation objectives of multi energy complementary on the supply side and comprehensive interaction on the load side,the operation operation characteristics of the gas electric coupling virtual power plant are decomposed from four aspects:morphological characteristics,structural characteristics.technical characteristics and application characteristics;Thirdly,based on the complex structure and relationship of electric,heat,gas and other energy entities in the virtual power plant,the types and operation optimization modes of the virtual power plant participating in the external energy market and the collaborative operation modes of various internal energy forms and equipment are sorted out,and the advantages of the operation structure and collaborative mode of the virtual power plant are demonstrated;Finally,this paper analyzes the current situation and summarizes the experience of the application projects of virtual power plants at home and abroad,and points out the enlightenment to the experience of gas power coupling virtual power plants,which lays a solid theoretical foundation for the follow-up chapters of this paper.Secondly,based on the risk of the uncertainty of renewable energy output and load,and energy price fluctuation on the operation optimization of the gas-electric virtual power plant,a operation optimization model of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant considering multi-uncertainty is established.Firstly,the uncertainties of distributed renewable energy output,load demand,carbon emission price and energy and electricity price in the virtual power plant are analyzed,and the probability distribution model is used to model the above uncertainties;Secondly,on this basis,the framework of multi uncertainty equipment participating in the operation of gas-electric virtual power plant is designed,and the operation optimization model of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant considering multi uncertainty is constructed with the objective of optimal system economic benefit and minimum carbon emission,and the solution algorithm and specific calculation process of improved predatory genetic algorithm are proposed;Finally,taking a gas-electric virtual power plant in North China as an example,six different scenarios are set for comparative study,which verifies that the gas-electric coupling virtual power plant is more competitive in the market considering multiple internal and external uncertainties,and can achieve win-win economic and environmental benefits.Thirdly,based on the influence of electric vehicle characteristics and coupling equipment operation characteristics on the system operation,the operation optimization model of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant considering electric vehicle characteristics is established.Firstly,the operation characteristics of electric vehicles and the equipment characteristics of the virtual power plant which can be coupled with electric vehicles are studied.Based on the traditional operation structure of virtual power plant,the operation structure of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant considering the characteristics of electric vehicles is designed;Secondly,aiming at maximizing the operation revenue of gas-electric virtual power plant in the day-ahead energy market,a operation optimization model of gas-electric coupling virtual power plant considering the characteristics of electric vehicles is constructed;Then,considering the nonlinear and multi-dimensional problems of the operation optimization model,to improve the convergence speed and calculation accuracy of particle swarm optimization algorithm and avoid the premature problem,an improved chaotic optimization algorithm based on tent map and the specific calculation process are proposed;Finally,an industrial park is selected for example analysis,and the system revenue under four scenarios is optimized.The optimal output scheme of each piece of equipment of the gas-electric virtual power plant at each time of the operation day is obtained.It is confirmed that considering the charging and discharging characteristics of electric vehicles and introducing it into the gas-electric virtual power plant with P2G equipment can significantly improve the system revenue.Fourthly,based on the analysis of the transaction mechanism and demand response characteristics of the virtual power plant participating in the demand response,the operation optimization model of the gas power virtual power plant considering the comprehensive demand response characteristics is established.Firstly,the transaction mechanism and demand response load characteristics of the virtual power plant participating in the demand response are analyzed,and the overall framework of the virtual power plant participating in the comprehensive demand response is designed;Secondly,aiming at maximizing the revenue of gas-electric virtual power plant,according to the interactive relationship between output exchange power of coupling equipment and multi-energy demand response,considering the constraints of controllable load,power network,thermal network,natural gas network,energy coupling and storage equipment,the operation optimization model of gas-electric virtual power plant participating in comprehensive demand response is constructed;Then,aiming at the uncertainty of various energy prices in the comprehensive demand response,the mean-variance model is introduced based on the original model,which maximizes the benefit of the gas power virtual power plant and reduces the risk brought by the uncertainty;Finally,through the case study and multi-scenario comparison,the results show that the virtual power plant can obtain higher benefits than the traditional demand response.Fifthly,since the gas-electric coupling virtual power plant itself is a complex system operated by multiple participants and faced with the influence of internal and external risk factors in participating in a variety of energy market transactions,a whole process risk evaluation model considering the participation of gas-electric virtual power plant in market operation is established.Firstly,the risk impact of different characteristics on the gas-electric coupling virtual power plant is analyzed from three aspects of multi-uncertainty,electric vehicle characteristics and comprehensive demand response characteristics;Secondly,combined with the operation structure and characteristics of the gas-electric virtual power plant,considering five aspects of external policy,participants,coupling technology,operation transaction and credit management,the risk evaluation index system of the gas-electric virtual power plant with 29 indexes is constructed;Then,on the basis of the advantages of entropy weight order relation weighting method and cloud model to solve the uncertainty evaluation information,the improved entropy weight order relation risk evaluation model based on cloud model is constructed;Finally,four scenarios of gas power virtual power plant are analyzed,and the evaluation results of different scenarios and different evaluation models are compared.The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model are verified.The risk assessment results can provide a decision-making basis for relevant departments.