Economic Dispatch Of Virtual Power Plant Considering Demand Response Uncertainty And Conditional Risk

With the worsening global climate and the intensification of energy consumption,distributed power is more and more permeated into the power system because of its outstanding advantages,such as clean and reliable.However,the distributed energy capacity is small,intermittent and uncertain,and it is not reliable to join the power market itself.The virtual power plant provides a new direction for solving the above problems.Due to the uncertainty of the output of the distributed power supply,it is necessary to quantify the economic problem.In this case,the conditional risk method can be used to quantify the uncertain factors.This method is mainly used to deal with the randomness in economics.In the power system,the research is generally used in the power market.The application of surface in the economic operation of power system is seldom seen.The response of demand response to power dispatching can bring the effect of cutting peak and filling the valley,reducing the fluctuation of the new energy access,reducing the energy saving and emission reduction,and so on.Considering the demand response in power dispatching has become a hot spot of attention of all scholars.However,there are various means of demand response,many factors and great uncertainty,such as the inaccuracy of load curve.There is also randomness in qualitative and demand response reduction.First of all,this paper expounds the research status of virtual power plant,and then introduces the virtual power plant from the aspects of definition and basic structure,the problem of scheduling decision,operation and control,the influence of the power market and its key technology.This paper introduces the concept of conditional risk,its application field and its characteristics,and intends to apply it to the field of power system,and introduces the research status of conditional risk.The reasons for the uncertainty of demand response are analyzed,and its research status is summarized.The characteristics of the virtual power plant are analyzed in detail,and the general simple model of the virtual power plant is established.The virtual power plant contains distributed power,energy storage system and small controlled unit.The mathematical model of the conditional risk is established,and many factors that affect the corresponding uncertainty of the demand are analyzed.According to the mathematical sub model established before,the general model of economic dispatch in virtual power plant is established.The model takes the maximum benefit of the system as the direction,including the cost of fuel consumption,the maintenance cost and the penalty cost for the distributed power supply,and the constraint conditions include the power balance,the positive and negative rotation reserve,the power upper and lower limit,the climbing,the running constraint of the battery and so on.We use conditional risk method to depict the deviation of wind and power output,and simplify the complexity brought by random variables.The uncertainty of demand response is described with fuzzy variables,the opportunity constraints are used,and then the equivalent of fuzzy programming is converted into a deterministic programming model,and the adaptive genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem.The data of a simple virtual power plant is used to verify the reasonableness of the established model.The results show that the model considering the uncertainty and the conditional risk of the demand response is more reasonable than the reality,some of which will affect the scheduling results.Finally,the related problems of virtual power plant are prospected,including the lack of research in this paper and the hot issues in the future.