| The "No.9 document" of the power reform and the supporting documents clearly put forward the deregulation of power sales business to social capital.Increase the main types of competition in the electricity market,and give power users the right to purchase electricity independently.It is the key to open the electricity market to build the operation mechanism of the electricity market.The determination of reasonable electricity price level has become the core task of the establishment of market operation mechanism.At the same time,retail electricity price is also an important way to transmit the price signal of wholesale electricity market to users.A reasonable price mechanism will effectively promote the coordinated operation and healthy development of the deregulated electricity market and the electricity sales market.With the development of the electricity selling side market,the retail electricity price is required to consolidate the market position of the enterprise and control the market risk.From the perspective of power industry development,retail electricity price is an important means to promote power structure optimization,energy saving and emission reduction,and improve power grid security.Although retail electricity price plays a core role in the process of electricity selling side liberalization.But at present,the types of prices in the electricity market are single,and the price level is also determined by the electricity buyers and sellers through negotiation,so it is difficult to improve the efficiency of electricity consumption.The price package pricing method does not take into account the impact of spot energy market price fluctuations and user electricity instability.Moreover,the selling companies did not determine the market share of differentiated pricing packages,which led to the pricing results deviated from the actual market.Based on the above situation,combined with the importance of retail electricity price policy research after the liberalization of electricity sales market.This paper starts from the reform requirements of the electricity selling side,draws lessons from the experience of foreign retail electricity price packages,and focuses on the pricing of electricity price in the electricity selling market.A series of related researches are carried out,including the analysis of users’ electricity consumption behavior and market segmentation,the design of retail electricity price package system,the optimization of retail electricity price package pricing and the adaptability evaluation of retail electricity price package.The specific research contents are as follows(1)This paper analyzes the current situation of domestic and foreign electricity sales market and the design of electricity price package system.This paper summarizes the experience of foreign electricity price system.Firstly,this paper analyzes the purpose and characteristics of foreign power price package system design,studies the influencing factors of power price package system design,and analyzes the influence mechanism between package and load characteristics,and further analyzes the composition and pricing strategy of foreign power price package price level,The experience and Enlightenment of designing and improving China’s electricity price package system and formulating electricity price level are obtained.(2)Based on the electricity consumption behavior of power users,the market segmentation model is constructed.Firstly,the k-means algorithm is applied to cluster the full dimension load curve,and the electricity consumption characteristics of power users are analyzed according to four seasons.Then,considering the impact of electricity price and market risk on consumers’ electricity consumption behavior after the deregulation of electricity sales market,the load characteristic index of load curve is extracted.This paper constructs a three-dimensional subdivision model from three dimensions of current value,potential value and user credit degree,and uses Kohonen neural network to cluster users again.The 12 types of users are mapped to 8 quadrants of the three-dimensional segmentation model,and the electricity consumption characteristics of the clustered users are analyzed,and the applicable price packages of the electricity user segmentation market are analyzed.(3)Considering the differentiated electricity demand of power users,the modular design model of electricity price package is constructed.Firstly,based on the selection tree,the structure of the electricity price package is analyzed,including three functional modules:basic module,required module and optional module;Then,based on the core demand,form demand and additional demand of power users,the mapping relationship of design price package structure is analyzed from demand module to function module and then to physical module.This paper discusses the framework,principles,methods and processes of the modular design of electricity price package,constructs the modular design model of electricity price package,and designs the targeted electricity price package according to the design rules of-the package and the constraint relationship between modules,combined with the actual electricity consumption behavior data of power users,Based on the electricity consumption characteristics of electricity consumers in the electricity market,this paper designs the electricity price package system with the combination of different dimensions.(4)Considering the characteristics of consumers in electricity market and the attributes of electricity price packages,a hybrid recommendation model of electricity price packages is proposed based on the similarity matrix of consumers’ characteristics and the multi-attribute utility of packages.Firstly,the characteristics of power users are analyzed from three dimensions of basic attributes,consumption attributes and current electricity price attributes of power users.Proximity measure is introduced to quantify the mixed characteristic data types of users,and the initial electricity price package recommendation set is obtained based on user similarity matrix.Then,the comprehensive utility of electricity price package to users is analyzed from two aspects of electricity expenditure and electricity consumption mode,According to the principle of package utility optimization,the final price package set is recommended for users.Finally,the suitable price packages for different stages of electricity sales market development are analyzed.(5)Considering the consumers’ willingness and option to purchase the electricity price package in the electricity market,this paper proposes an optimization method of electricity price package pricing considering the consumers’ self selection.Firstly,based on the utility analysis of electricity price package,the market share model of electricity selling company is established.Then,the paper analyzes the different power purchase models of power selling companies in the medium and long-term and spot markets,constructs the basic price package pricing model with the goal of maximizing the profit of power selling companies,and considers the risk constraints caused by the price fluctuation in the spot market and the unstable demand of power users.Finally,referring to the pricing model of basic electricity price package,the optimal pricing model of combined electricity price packages such as peak valley electricity price package,seasonal peak valley electricity price package and high reliability electricity price package is constructed.The electricity consumption data and wholesale market electricity price data of a certain area are selected to calculate the price level of different electricity price packages.The example analysis shows that the pricing model based on user selection strategy is more accurate.(6)Considering the actual situation of electricity market development,the multi-dimensional adaptability evaluation model of electricity price package is constructed.Firstly,the factors influencing the adaptability of retail price packages are analyzed from the three dimensions of electricity sales market,electricity sales companies and users,and an evaluation index system for the adaptability of retail price packages considering the interests of electricity sales companies and users is established.Then,data envelopment analysis(DEA)is used to analyze the quantitative indicators,cloud model is used to evaluate the non quantifiable indicators,and cloud model is used to process the quantitative evaluation results to obtain the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results.After analyzing the rationality of the evaluation results,the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation.This study is committed to solve the problems existing in the design of electricity price package and the formulation of electricity price level.This paper analyzes users’electricity consumption behavior and subdivides the market,and designs packages according to the characteristics of electricity consumption behavior in different markets.Combined with the cost and risk of electricity purchase in the electricity market,the pricing model is constructed,and the design of electricity price package system,the optimization of package pricing considering the user’s independent choice,the analysis of package utility and the recommendation of optimal package are completed.This study has practical significance for the implementation of scientific and quantitative electricity price package design and marketing work. |
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