Research On Power Generation Forecasting,Load Forecasting And Optimal Operation Management Of Grid-connected Microgrid

The development of renewable energy can effectively reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and environmental pollution.Traditional centralized power generation and long-distance transmission grid structure is stable in operation,but also has the problems of inflexible startup of units,high transmission costs and a single form of power supply.The development and extension of Microgrid can promote the large-scale access of distributed generation and solve the problem of local consumption of renewable energy.However,distributed generation in Microgrid system has strong volatility.Efficient and safe power trading and energy scheduling are the key to promoting the local consumption of distributed energy and ensure the safe and economic operation of Microgrid.At the same time,with the addition of energy storage technology,the market participants in the micro grid market become diversified.The decentralized mode of energy trading can effectively reduce the management and operation cost of the energy market,but there are certain information security risks.In addition,the relative independence of Microgrid trading market and power dispatching organization will cause a certain degree of resource waste,which will reduce the overall operation efficiency of Microgrid.Therefore,how to build a flexible,efficient and secure Microgrid trading platform and Microgrid power dispatching system is of great significance to the development of Microgrid,the development and promotion of Microgrid technology and even the development of new energy.Firstly,this paper reviews the research progress and theory of Microgrid trading market and dispatching operation,and expounds the background and significance of the topic.The theoretical basis and management content of grid-connected Microgrid market transaction and Microgrid dispatching operation are analyzed in depth.The logical relations between generation forecasting and Microgrid trading market operation,demand side load forecasting and Microgrid trading market operation,as well as Microgrid trading market and dispatching operation are revealed,and thus builds a general framework for the market trading and operation optimization management model of grid-connected Microgrids.Secondly,the necessity of grid-connected Microgrid generation-side PV,wind power generation forecasting and demand-side Microgrid user load forecasting is further investigated.Aiming at the output prediction part of power generation-side,the characteristics of historical data and influencing factors of PV and wind power are analyzed,then,the Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)algorithm is improved,and the improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm(APSO)optimized k-means.The output prediction model of PV and wind farm based on optimized k-means algorithm and random forest is constructed to improve the accuracy of PV power generation and wind power generation prediction.Aiming at the demandside user load forecasting part,according to the data types and characteristics of power load data,firstly,the PSO algorithm is improved,and the APSO is optimized for the combinatorial model ARIMA-SVR,so as to construct the adaptive weight recombination combined forecasting model APSO-ARIMA-SVR to improve the generalization of the combination forecasting model and accuracy of Microgrid demand-side user load forecasting.The forecasting methods of generation forecasting and user load forecasting provide an important basis and foundation for subsequent grid connected Microgrid trading market operation and dispatching operation management.Then,according to the existing problems of Microgrid market and the requirements of safety and efficiency,the interest game and equilibrium of the market operators of the gridconnected microgrid were studied,and the operation model of the grid-connected microgrid electricity trading market was constructed.Firstly,this paper analyzes the research status and limitations of the current power market trading mode,discusses the characteristics of the Microgrid trading market and the problems to be solved.It is found that the decentralized trading mode can reduce the operation cost of the trading market and improve the transaction efficiency.However,the decentralized transaction mode without middleman operation has the disadvantage of low security.In view of this,based on the Nash equilibrium theory,this paper proposes a trading strategy suitable for grid-connected Microgrid power market.Then,the union blockchain technology is introduced to ensure the security and transparency of the transaction process.,so as to build a grid-connected Microgrid trading market based on Nash equilibrium and alliance blockchain technology,which breaks the traditional Microgrid market trading model and ensures a secure trading process while improving power trading efficiency and reducing operating costs.Finally,this paper investigates the energy dispatch optimization strategy under the market trading of grid-connected Microgrids based on the market research of grid-connected Microgrids.The economic operation of Microgrid system is based on the optimal control strategy of power dispatch.Generally,the transaction market and the dispatching organization are relatively independent,which may lead to low efficiency of optimal allocation of resources,energy loss and waste,and also lead to low operation efficiency of the overall Microgrid.Coupling the Microgrid power trading market with the dispatching operation system and guiding the operation of the dispatching system with the power market can improve the overall flexibility of the Microgrid,reduce the impact on the grid,improve the operation efficiency and save the operation cost of the Microgrid.Therefore,based on the transaction information of Microgrid power market,the operation scheme of dispatching system guided by trading market is proposed,and the scheduling optimization model of Microgrid system is constructed by using squirrel optimization algorithm,which has important theoretical and application value for improving the adaptability of energy dispatching strategy.Therefore,based on the accurate access to the new energy output information and load of Microgrid,according to the market transaction information of Microgrid,a reasonable optimal dispatching scheme is formulated.And according to the above research results,suggestions are made for the source-load prediction and optimized operation management of grid-connected microgrids.In this paper,the research on the market transaction and operation optimization management mode of grid-connected Microgrid is helpful to effectively implement the national energy conservation and emission reduction work,improve the overall technical level of China's Microgrid development,and contribute to the reasonable allocation of power grid power and optimization of resource allocation.At the same time,making full use of new energy power is of great significance to promote the construction of micro grid and environmental protection.In addition,the transaction and operation optimization management mode of gridconnected Microgrid market studied in this paper also has certain academic value for the development of new energy power enterprise management theory.