Research On Robust Trading And Operation Strategy Considering Uncertainty Under Dual-track System

Under the urgent goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization",the proportion of random renewable energy represented by wind power and photovoltaic is gradually increasing.In addition,the comprehensive and orderly release of generation and utilization plans has led to significant changes in the development environment of the power market.Therefore,standardizing the unified market structure dominated by inter-provincial long-term transactions and supplemented by intra-provincial spot transactions.And clarifying the transaction behavior and operation scheduling mode of each market subject has become a key problem to be solved in China's power market construction and power system operation at this stage.According to the development and consumption of renewable energy in China and based on the overall framework of China's power market.This paper studies the transaction mechanism of inter-provincial,and long-term market and intra-provincial spot markets considering the bilateral uncertainty of source and load and the operation and scheduling strategy of internal controllable resources.The main research contents are as follows:(1)To realize the joint market-oriented operation of inter and intra provincial power markets and build a power market system with effective coordination of multiple markets and orderly connection of multiple time scales,a joint market trading system to promote the consumption of renewable energy is proposed.The joint market trading system defines the functional positioning of all levels,covers the transaction behavior of market subjects on the generation side and power consumption side,and lays a foundation for the follow-up in-depth research and analysis of all levels and subjects.(2)To scientifically describe the uncertainty of source and load,a robust analysis method based on accurate probability distribution is proposed based on the robust theory.This method can flexibly adjust the boundary of the uncertain set and balance the economy and robustness of the system,and make up for the shortcomings of traditional methods.Furthermore,considering the uncertainty caused by the inaccurate estimation of parameter variables in the uncertain set,a distributed robust analysis method considering the uncertainty of probability distribution is proposed.This method can solve the problem that it is difficult to construct fuzzy sets in distributed robust and only for the uncertainty analysis of a single time section.The proposed two methods can provide theoretical support for the orderly trading between the long-term and medium and spot markets under the influence of uncertainty and the scheduling of controllable resources within each market subject.(3)To stabilize large-scale market supply and demand and avoid market risks,a robust trading strategy for the interprovincial medium and long-term market under the green certification trading is proposed based on the proposed joint market trading system.The transaction strategy uses bilateral transactions and continuous transactions to solve the problems of insufficient liquidity of green certification and the orderly connection between medium and long-term planning and short-term scheduling.On this basis,a multi-participant strategic game model considering uncertainty is constructed based on cooperative game theory.The dynamic relaxable constraint processing method and the optimization algorithm for solving multi-objective,nonlinear,and nonconvex problems are proposed.The results show that the fully cooperative game model is the farthest from the breakpoint of negotiation,and the benefits of the alliance and each participant are the best.The proposed trading strategy can scientifically balance the economy and conservatism of various market subjects,fully mobilize the enthusiasm of more subjects to participate in green card trading,and avoid market risks while ensuring the implementation of relevant policies.(4)To improve the proportion of large-scale renewable energy on the generation side in the market and promote the large-scale consumption of renewable energy,a robust operation strategy of the sending power grid in the spot market is proposed based on the proposed joint market trading system.The strategy optimizes the utilization of energy storage resources on both sides of the source and network to solve the problems of low utilization and excessive initial investment cost of energy storage.And use energy storage to participate in the auxiliary service market as a necessary supplement to the power market.On this basis,based on the dynamic game theory and taking the medium and long-term transaction plan as the boundary,a robust operation model of energy storage cooperative transmission end power grid considering the uncertainty is constructed.The results of the example analysis show that the proposed operation strategy of energy storage can not only coordinate the output of renewable energy stations but also meet the dynamic frequency modulation demand of the transmission power grid.The robust operation strategy of sending power grid can balance the complex interest relationship among multiple participants in spot trading and promote the formation and expansion of market-oriented electricity in the province.(5)To expand the wide access of new power consumption market players including distributed energy,energy storage,and virtual power plant,and promote the consumption of renewable energy in multiple market players,a robust operation strategy of the urban micro-network in the spot market is proposed based on the proposed joint market trading system.This strategy uses the bilateral game between supply and demand to solve the problem of insufficient initiative analysis of microgrid operators in energy trading.Multi-time scale operation/correction is used to deal with the difference of energy characteristics between the multi-energy coupling.On this basis,considering the uncertainty,the day ahead / day robust operation/correction model is constructed,and a multi-objective optimization algorithm with a large-scale irregular frontier is proposed.The results show that the bilateral game between supply and demand can balance the interests of all participants,scale operation/correction can improve the reliability of transactions,the proposed strategy can promote multi-market players to widely participate in power trading,and enhance flexibility of users' energy consumption.