Population Aging,income Distribution Level For Old-Age Care And Economic Growth

The implementation of the national strategy to actively respond to the aging population is an important part of the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.It is also one of the important ways to realize the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.From 2021 to 2035,China will enter the peak of population aging.During this period,the continuous acceleration of the number of elderly population,the continuous negative growth of the number of working and youth population will become the most prominent characteristics in the process of population age structure changes in China.The deepening of population aging will slow down the pace of economic growth,hence,it is not only the important spirit of the state to actively respond to the medium and long-term planning of population aging,but also an important content to realize the coordinated development between population aging and economic growth.Based on the existing researches and the current social and economic development situation in China,this paper attempts to explore the "distribution" path that the aging population affects economic growth,and analyzes the way to optimize the "distribution" path.By introducing the factors of population aging and income distribution for old-age care to the two-stage overlapping generation model and endogenous growth model,this paper first demonstrates the existence of the "distribution" path of population aging affecting economic growth theoretically,and then empirically tests the theoretical analysis conclusion based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to2019 in China;after that,based on the perspective of national policy,the current situation of China's economic development and the future trend of economic development,this paper puts forward the ways of labor supply,human capital investment and digital economy to optimize the "distribution" path of population aging affecting economic growth,and uses the expanded endogenous growth model and the logical relation diagram of optimizing the "distribution" path of the impact of population aging on economic growth to theoretically deduces and clearly illustrates the feasibility and logic relationship of the above ways to optimize the "distribution path";finally,the paper uses the numerical simulation method to test the influence of population aging on economic growth and the intermediary role of the income distribution for old-age care again,determines the expectation of the lowest level of economic growth to ensure the income distribution for old-age care does not decrease in the peak of aging in the future,simulates the impact of the rising level of old-age care's income distribution on the level of economic growth,and tests the optimization way of the "distribution" path of economic growth affected by the aging population.Based on the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Based on theoretical model derivation and empirical test of empirical data,the deepening of population aging will promote the level of old-age care's income distribution,which significantly negatively affects the change of economic growth level.As per the results of using the expanded endogenous growth model which comprehensively introduces the aging factor,the old-age care's income distribution factor,labor supply factor,human capital investment factor and digital economy factor to simulate,we can find that when the old-age care's income distribution level is not considered,the economic growth rate will change by about-0.24 percentage points with the deepening of population aging degree;while with the increase of 1% of old-age care's income distribution level caused by the deepening in population aging,the economic growth rate will change again about-0.51 percentage points.In short,the "distribution" path of aging population affecting economic growth does exists.(2)Based on the expanded endogenous growth model which comprehensively introduces the aging,the old-age care's income distribution,labor supply,human capital investment and digital economy factors,the theoretical derivation shows that labor supply,human capital investment and digital economic are the important ways to optimize the "distribution" path of population aging affecting the economic growth.And through the construction of the logical relation diagram,this paper further clarifies the logic relationship of the above three ways to optimize the "distribution" path of population aging affecting economic growth.(3)In the future,at the peak of population aging,the minimum economic growth level is expected to be about 4.82% to ensure that the income distribution level for old-age care will not decrease.(4)In the future,at the peak of population aging,the degree of population aging will deepen,and the level of old-age care's income distribution level will be improved,and when every 1% change in it will lead to-0.51% change in the economic growth rate.(5)In the future,at the peak of population aging,the implementation of policies of expanding employment and delaying retirement age,increasing the inputs of the human capital and data production factors can effectively alleviate the negative impact of the aging population linkage old-age care's income distribution level on economic growth.When the growth rate of labor participation rate changes by 1percentage point for each change of employment policy,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will change by about 1.08,9.93 and 10.83 percentage points respectively;when the growth rate of labor participation rate and the old-age care's income distribution level change by 1 percentage point and-2 percentage point respectively due to delayed retirement age policy,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will change by 1.14,0.09 and14.25 percentage points respectively;with the implementation of the policy of expanding employment and delaying retirement age,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will change by 2.22,10.15 and 26.79 percentage points respectively;when the growth rate of human capital investment changes by 1 percentage point,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will vary by about 0.57,5.09 and 5.55 percentage points respectively;when the growth rate of input of data production elements changes by 1 percentage point,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will change by about 0.21,1.90 and 2.07 percentage points respectively;when the comprehensive implementation is carried out above optimizing ways,the economic growth rate,the per capita old-age care's income distribution and the per capita working population income will change by about 3.00,18.14 and 36.77 percentage points respectively.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper also proposes some policy suggestions,such as improving employment promotion mechanism,perfecting employment service system,expanding employment capacity,delaying retirement age elastically,developing silver economy,encouraging fertility,increasing children's education subsidy,increasing expenditure on public education and vocational skills education,promoting scientific and technological progress,improving the level of labor force substitution for technology,accelerating the development of digital economy,protecting data resources,building multi-level pension system and perfecting income redistribution system.