| With the improvement of people's income level,the total amount of households'wealth grows rapidly,In 2018,the per capita property of Chinese households exceeded 200,000 yuan,providing a basis for families to participate in investment.At the same time,financial markets have developed rapidly,increasing the diversity of assets available to households.However,China's resident asset structure is seriously unbalanced,showing the characteristics of "single financial asset structure,high proportion of real estate".Moreover,the asset structure of families of different ages and different population age structure presents certain differences.The single asset structure of Chinese residents is not conducive to the increase of property income,nor is it conducive to the balance of asset risks,and thus is not conducive to the exploition of residents' consumption potential.At the same time,China's population age change shows the dual characteristics of "accelerating aging" and "serious shortage of children".Since China entered the aging society in 1999,the aging has been accelerating,and the proportion of the population over 65 years old has increased rapidly from 7.0%in 1999 to 13.5%in 2020.At the same time,China's population shows the characteristics of "serious shortage of children",the proportion of China's young population in 2020 is only 18%.As the basic unit of economic society,the family age structure also changes correspondingly.Existing data show that the asset structure of families with different ages and different population age structures shows great differences.Based on this,this paper analyzes the population age structure change influence on asset allocation and the wealth effect.It is of great practical significance to explore the problems of existing social security system,capital market and income distribution,optimize the population age structure,better play to the population policy effect,optimize the assets structure,promote the realization and increase of the wealth effect,Further release the residents' consumption potential.In view of this,this study will analyze the impact of population age structure change on asset allocation and wealth effect from the perspective of family age structure and family life cycle,to analyze the demographic factors of the imbalance of asset structure in China,and provide theoretical basis for the optimization of residents' asset structure and the realization of asset wealth effect.In terms of theoretical research,combined with flow constraint theory,life cycle portfolio theory,heterogeneous consumption and other relevant theories,as well as asset function attribute,residents' risk preference,liquidity preference,etc.,the mechanism of the impact of population age structure change on residents' asset allocation and wealth effect is analyzed.In terms of empirical research,based on the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),Using OLS containing clustering robust standard error,age-time-group(APC)decomposition method,probit model,IE analysis method and so on to make empirical analysis,Quantitatively measuring the impact of population age structure change on resident asset allocation,Exploring the heterogeneity influence of household age structure on asset allocation of different households,with different amounts of wealth,housing ownership and urban or rural distribution,analyzing the heterogeneous impact of household life cycle on urban and rural household's asset allocation.At the same time,based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),empirical analysis was carried out by using two-stage least square method(2SLS),instrumental variable method and fixed effect regression to quantify the impact of population age structure on the wealth effect of housing assets and financial assets.Multi-dimensional robustness tests were performed.The marginal contribution of this study is reflected in the following aspects.First of all,in the analysis of population age structure change on the impact of asset allocation,based on the multi-dimensional characteristics of household assets,the paper subdivides household assets according to the differences in liquidity,risk and profitability of different assets,and comprehensively measures the behavioral characteristics of household assets allocation from two perspectives of different asset allocation ratio and investment participation rate.Secondly,in order to measure the impact of household life cycle on asset allocation more accurately,the age effect,group effect and time effect of household asset allocation change are distinguished.Thirdly,in the specific analysis of the impact of population age structure on the asset wealth effect,households with houses are selected as samples based on the family micro data,so as to avoid the reduction of the housing wealth effect caused by the "house slave effect" of households without houses to a certain extent.Furthermore,the heterogeneity of the impact of population age structure changes on the housing wealth effect of households with different number of houses,property rights,housing price to income ratio and regions with different housing price growth rates is further explored.In addition,in measuring the impact of family life cycle on the asset wealth effect,the different effects of family age and birth year on the asset wealth effect are distinguished.The paper is divided into 8 chapters:Chapter 1 is the introduction;Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis and literature review;Chapter 3 analyzes the present situation of population age structure and residents' asset allocation in China;Chapter 4 analyze the influence of population age structure on residents' asset allocation;chapter 5 analyze the influence of population age structure on residents' asset allocation,based on the family life cycle perspective:chapter 6 analyze the influence of population age structure on assets wealth effect;chapter 7 analyze the influence of population age structure on assets wealth effect from the perspective of the family life cycle;Chapter 8 is the conclusion and policy suggestion.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the change of population age structure will affect the financial asset allocation of residents.As for the structure of financial assets,Chinese families,especially young and elderly families,are faced with the problem of "single financial asset structure and large proportion of cash and bank deposits".In China,the financial assets of young and old households are mainly consumer financial assets,investment financial assets account for a relatively small proportion,and the participation rate of risky financial market is low.In addition,the increase of old-age dependency ratio will promote the increase of cash and bank deposit ratio in households,and reduce the proportion of investment financial assets and risky financial assets in households,especially those with little wealth and households without houses.Secondly,the change of population age structure will affect residential housing asset allocation.With the increase of age,the ratio of real estate of Chinese families shows an inverted U-shaped trend.Chinese families have strong housing bequest motivation,and housing still accounts for a large proportion in the assets of elderly families.In addition,the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the infant dependency ratio has a restraining effect on the property ownership ratio of families,and the increase of the infant dependency ratio has a greater restraining effect on the property ownership ratio of families with less wealth,urban families and families without houses.Thirdly,there are great differences in asset allocation between urban and rural residents in China.As for financial asset allocation,compared with urban households,rural residents prefer cash and bank deposits with low risk and low yield in asset allocation.Even in the middle age with the highest income level and the most wealth accumulation,the proportion of cash and bank deposits held by rural households is much higher than that of urban households,and the proportion of investment financial assets and risky financial assets is much lower than that of urban households.In terms of housing asset allocation,the property ratio of urban young families is lower than that of rural families,and that of middle-aged and elderly families is much higher than that of rural families.In addition,the birth year of a family also affects the asset allocation of residents,and the impact of birth year on the asset allocation of urban and rural households shows certain differences.Fourthly,the change of population age structure will affect the wealth effect of different assets.The increase of the young dependency ratio will significantly reduce the wealth effect of housing assets,while the increase of the old dependency ratio will increase the wealth effect of housing assets.For households with houses,the increase of old-age dependency ratio and juvenile dependency ratio significantly enhanced the housing wealth effect,and the positive impact of juvenile dependency ratio on the housing wealth effect was greater than that of old-age dependency ratio.In addition,the increase of dependency ratio plays a greater role in promoting the housing wealth effect of families with multiple houses,large property rights and low housing price to income ratio.In addition,When controlling for the effect of birth year on the asset wealth effect,by comparing the variation of the wealth effect of household assets in different life cycles,it can be found that the wealth effect of financial assets and the wealth effect of housing assets of households with houses are larger than those without houses.Therefore,Firstly,strengthen the construction of endowment insurance system,and improve the level of rural social security.Secondly,improve residents' financial literacy and optimize the investment environment of financial market.Again,strengthen housing price regulation,guarantee housing demand.Finally,broaden the income sources of rural residents and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas... |
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