Research On The Evolution Law Of Carbon Emissions From Energy Consumption In The Process Of Industrialization

The18th national congress of the communist party of China first proposed to build the beautiful Chinese, the ecological civilization construction and economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, social construction side by side,"five in one" construction Chinese socialism. The Third Plenary Session of the eighteen proposed the building of ecological civilization, ecological civilization system must be established a complete system, the source of the most stringent protection system, damage compensation system, accountability system, improve the environmental management and ecological restoration system, using the system to protect the ecological environment. It reflected our country pays more and more attention to ecological civilization in the development of economy at the same time. With the development of economy, China's industrialization process constantly advancing, how to effectively reduce due to promote the industrialization process of carbon emissions is our country must bear the responsibility, it is a big challenge faced.At present, the existing research judge the industrialization process using a variety of methods. But because the judgment results inconsistent, finally they make a final confirmation of industrialization using qualitative methods. There are several methods have been used for the comprehensive judgment of the industrialization process, but the method only using weight method. This paper used the subjective and objective method and combining the variance maximization of various methods in weight in the process of industrialization of comprehensive quantitative judgment, in order to more accurately, objectively on the industrialization of our country and so as to better promote the industrialization process. In addition, the existing research on the relationship between industrialization and carbon emissions too much focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative study of the industrialization process more use GDP or industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to replace. But the measure standard of industrialization has many aspects. This paper will establish the relationship model between them based on envir, nmental Kuznets, and carries on the quantification as comprehensively as possible of the industrialization process in order to find out the relationship between them. Secondly, the shapley value of the cooperative game method of allocating the total error to determine the weight of each method of combination forecast model, which can be used to predict the total energy consumption. Finally, the paper establishes the method of carbon emission warning model based on evidence theory and information fusion. And using this model determined Yunnan province alarm from2001to2010.This paper includes nine chapters, each chapter is as follows. The first chapter, introduction. It mainly introduces the background, significance and research methods, research content and innovation points etc... The second chapter, literature review. Mainly introduced and recent progress related to the research results home and abroad, including the industrialization process, carbon emission factors, industrialization and carbon emissions, carbon emissions combined forecasting, carbon emission warning and other aspects of the related research. And the research of existing was reviewed. The third chapter, energy consumption and carbon emission characteristics and influencing factors of the evolution research——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. A time series of carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity of Yunnan province1952-2010were established, and has carried on the correlation analysis. Finally, paper has an empirical study on the influence factors of carbon emissions. The fourth chapter, study on the judgment of the industrialization process——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. The paper judged the industrialization process using H. Chenery Multi Country model, a wide range of Simon Kuznets theorem, petty Clark theorem, and Chenery city development process. And paper determined the weight of each method in the industrialization process of judgment to the judgment of the industrialization process using the analytic hierarchy process, entropy method, based on the combined variance maximization of weighting method. And the paper analysis China's industrialization trend in the next period of time. The fifth chapter, study on the function relationship model between industrialization and carbon emission——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, the paper establishes the function relation model of industrialization and carbon emissions, and find out the relationship between them. The sixth chapter, study on forecast model of carbon emissions from energy consumption——Take Yunnan Province as an example. Using exponential smoothing method, system dynamics, combined with grey prediction three methods, and through the Shapley value method to determine the weight of each method, paper predicted the energy consumption of the future, and finded the the carbon emissions using the proportion of energy varieties with Markov chain. The seventh chapter, study on the early warning model of energy consumption and carbon emissions——Taking Yunnan Province as an example. By using the method of evidence theory and information fusion, paper makes the warning judgment on the carbon emission of Yunnan Province during2001-2010. The eighth chapter, paper studied on coping mechanism about carbon emissions of energy consumption in the process of industrialization. This paper mainly studied the coping mechanism about carbon emissions of energy consumption from the two aspects of system framework and operating system. The ninth chapter, conclusions and suggestions. The conclusions of the paper are summarized, some suggestions are given, and the future research is prospected.