Hebei’s Industrial Carbon Emissions Characteristics And Emissions Reduction Scenario Aanalysis

In China, energy consumption is mainly derived from fossil energy category, out of which CO2 in the combustion process is responsible for the environment deterioration and climate change. Recently, greenhouse gases emitted during China’s fossil fuel burning ranks the first in the long-term and presents the increasing emissions share year by year. Thus, CO2 emissions reduction is the common responsibility and international obligation of all the nations in the world. Especially, it is crucial to study on the trend variation and future development situation of CO2 emissions. Being the large province of industry, Hebei shows ever-increasing industrial CO2 emissions with the rapid development of economy. It is of both theoretical and modern significance to achieve low-carbon development pattern of industry, realize energy conservation and promote sustainable economic development in Hebei. In this regard, through the analysis of industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions status, this paper employs STIRPAT model and partial least-squares(PLS) regression to carry out factor decomposition and future scenarios of industrial carbon emissions in Hebei.The article mainly included the following works: Firstly, system analysis of industrial carbon emissions in Hebei is presented, including industrial economic development situation, industrial energy situation, industrial CO2 emissions situation. Among them, analysis of industrial energy structure and future trends prediction are adopted. Secondly, this paper performs empirical study by STIRPAT model and partial least-squares(PLS) regression. Besides, all impact factors are rank ed according to their importance and conducted detailed impact degree evaluation. Finally, this paper concludes with scenario analysis and policy proposal of future CO2 emissions in Hebei. For one thing, scenario analysis of overall industrial CO2 emissions are implemented by setting three scenarios and analyzing CO2 emissions and carbon intensity under different strength of carbon reduction respectively. For another, we provide policy suggestions on industry emission reduction in Hebei based on emission-cutting focus in Hebei.