The Global Value Chain Specialization And Export Fluctuation Research

Since the 1980s,along with the information,communications,transportation,and the rapid progress of production technology,the trade transaction cost between the countries declining,increasing production and capital internationalization trend.At the same time,developing countries in order to enter into the GVC system,change the strategy of foreign trade since then pulled open the prelude of the division of global value chain Division of global value chain is under the background of economic globalization new characteristics and new trend of international division of labor.Along with the development of the global value chain division of labor,more and more countries won the opportunity of export trade,export become the momentum of economic growth.But at the same time,these countries are also facing the fluctuations of the export trade;economic growth is not stable,etc.Especially after the financial crisis in 2008,as demand weakens,trade cycle and economic cycle of all countries show varying degrees of decline trend,how to reduce the impact of external weakness to country's export trade and economic growth is the current national major subject presses for solution.Based on the above question discussion,this paper firstly analyzes the related research of global value chain division of labor,Second,based on the situation of export fluctuation theory domestic and foreign research weak,in this paper,summarize the domestic and foreign export fluctuation classical theory,analysis and summarizes the influence export fluctuations in supply side and demand side factors.According to the characteristics of the division of global value chain,this paper further constructed export fluctuations general equilibrium analysis framework which based on value chain division of labor,respectively from the supply side of the division of global value chain effect and demand side effect two aspects elaborated the division of global value chain affect export volatility transmission path Then,in this paper,combining with the characteristics of division of global value chain model,from two aspects:value chain division of labor status and value-added distribution constructs the theory of global value chain division of labor and export fluctuations analysis model.On this basis,this paper respectively established the corresponding empirical model,respectively from the perspective of global value chain division of labor status distribution and value-added distribution empirically the theory analysis conclusion.Finally combining theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the improving export fluctuation on the stability of policy recommendations.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions.First,From the supply aspect,along with the development of global value chain division of labor,the transfer of production processes on the space on the one hand,make advances in technology have become a common phenomenon in the global scope,on the other hand to promote the production technology level of differentiation in different countries,which makes up the value chain of division of labor and mid-range countries export products shows the characteristics of low-end and diversification,the division of value chain of high-end countries are high-end and professional characteristics,so that from supply level enhance the value chain division of high-end countries export fluctuations stability.Second,from demand aspect,global value chain division of labor bring the trade integration of the world,make the industry closely linked together,the international economic cycle and the trade between the cycle began to have a great impact on various countries,formed the international economic cycle "resonance" phenomenon,and the world trade cycle amplifies the external shocks on the world export fluctuation.Intermediate product quality difference makes the corresponding countries export to different types of external market,the division of value chain of high-end countries with relatively more stable external demand of the market,thus weakened the external shocks on the export fluctuation At the same time,give priority to with intermediates in trade mode,the division of value chain of high-end countries get more diversified export markets,and the value chain division of labor and mid-range countries export market distribution density is higher,thus enhance the external shocks dispersing ability of division of value chain of high-end country.Third,the global value chain division of labor status differences form different countries export fluctuations foundation.The higher division of labor status of the country has a relatively stronger stability of export fluctuations.The higher value chain division prior to participation country is mainly influenced by indirect value,after the division of the value chain to participation country export fluctuation is mainly influenced by foreign value-added.Fourthly,under the global value chain division of labor system,when a country can adjust pricing according to the change of external demand,flexible value-added rate,a state-owned ability to obtain stable export fluctuations.By contrast,division of the value chain of high-end countries because of its export products with high technical level,therefore gives higher domestic value-added goods,at the same time due to the division of the value chain of high-end countries dominate in the value chain division of labor,and thus obtain the "pricing power" of the intermediate product,which means that the value chain of high-end countries will have a higher level of added value and the added value of a more flexible regulatory options.The division of the value chain of low-end countries due to the product technical level is not high,the domestic value-added goods is relatively low,the low end of the country is located in the subordinate position,so do not have strong autonomy "pricing power",and then lost the ability to flexibly adjust the size of the added value.