A Study Of The Impact Of International Trade On Directed Technical Change In China's Industrial Sector

Since the reform and opening up,the driving force of China's rapid economic growth mainly depends on the expansion of labor,capital,resources and other factors.Under the new normal,as labor,capital and energy constraints tighten,it is more urgent to accelerate the driving force of economic growth to drive the growth of factor efficiency and drive innovation.Under the conditions of open economy,international trade drives the change of factor structure and allocation efficiency through the learning-by-exporting effect and import technology spillover effect,which further influences the bias of China's technical change.Therefore,the study of the impact of international trade on China's biased technical change has an important inspiration for China to accelerate the development of innovation-driven development.In this dissertation,along with analytical framework of directed technical change proposed by Acemoglu(2002),drawing lessons from theory model of the impact of international trade on skill-biased technical change(Acemoglu,2003;Thoenig and Verdier,2003;Epifani and Gancia,2008;Gancia,2011;Acemoglu et al.,2015),transforming and expanding it into the theory model of international trade having an effect on bias of technical change between capital and labor.In the international trade equilibrium model,containing two countries(developed countries and developing countries),two departments(labor intensive sector and capital intensive sector),production factors(capital and labor).On this basis,this dissertation takes the directed technical change as the start,taking the China industrial industry as the research object,and answers the following questions in turn:(1)What kind of production factor is directed towards technical change in China's Industrial Sector?Whether the bias of technical change has changed,and What changes have happened to the degree of technical change bias?(2)What influence does international trade have on the technical change bias in China's industrial sector,and what is its impact mechanism?(3)What impact does offshoring have on the direction of technical change in China's industrial sector,and what is its mechanism?(4)Does biased technical change contributing to the growth of China's industrial total factor productivity?From what has been discussed above,the following main conclusions are obtained.The trend and characteristics of directed technical change in China's industrial sector.According to the definition of Acemoglu(2002)'s biased technical change,the directed technical change index is derived from CES production function,using the factor efficiency growth rate of Box-Cox transformation to set the framework,and applying the method of normalized supply-side system approach proposed by Klump et al(2007,2012)and improved by Le'on-Ledesma et al(2010,2015),based on the characteristics of the biased technical change in China's industrial sector in 1998-2015 years,The research shows that:(1)As a whole,the technical change China's industrial sector is biased towards capital,and the bias of capital biased technical change fluctuates greatly,which is generally characterized by the inverted "U" type.(2)From the perspective of biased technical change in sub sectors,in the past 1998-2007 years,technical change of most industries was directed towards labor.In the past 2008-2012 years,technical change was mostly directed towards capital.In the past 2013-2015 years,the number of technical change biased towards capital and labor was basically equal.(3)Technical change of the high trade openness sectors is mostly directed towards labor,technical change of capital intensive sectors is more biased towards capital,technical change of labor intensive industries is mostly biased towards labor,and technical change of the high-tech industry is mostly biased towards labor.The impact of international trade on the directed technical change of China's industrial sector.Under the combination of capital and labor factors,this dissertation analyzes the influence and its mechanism of import trade and export trade on the biased technical change in China industrial sector from the perspective of products.The main findings are as follows:(1)Improvement of export intensity contributes to promoting capital bias of technological progress in China industrial sector.This feature is especially evident in industries with high trade openness,capital intensive industries and high technology.(2)Increase of import penetration contributes to promoting the labor bias trend of technical change in China's industrial sector.This feature is outstanding in the high trade openness industry,capital intensive industry,high-tech industry and middle and low technology industry.(3)Increasie of R&D capital intensity help to enhance the labor bias tendency of the increase of import penetration to China's industrial technology progress,which is significant in the high trade openness industry,labor intensive industry and high-tech industry.(4)Increase the input intensity of R&D personnel is helpful to enhance the labor bias tendency of the increase of import penetration to China's industrial technology progress,which is significant in the high trade openness industry,labor intensive industry and high technology industry.(5)The empirical test does not find that the enhancement of intellectual property protection intensity is obviously beneficial to strengthening the labor bias tendency of the import permeability to the technical change in China's industrial sector.The impact of offshoring on the directed technical change in China's industrial sector.Offshoring is different from technology spillover generated by general trade goods.It contains processing trade and intermediate product trade imported from machinery and equipment.Based on the measurement of the offshoring level in China's industrial sector,this dissertation empirically analyses the influence of offshoring level on China's industrial sector biased technical change and its mechanism.The main findings are as follows:(1)From the change of offshoring level,offshoring level in most industries presents a downward trend;Compared with the industry,the offshoring level of high trade openness,capital intensive and high-tech industries is usually higher.(2)The higher the offshoring level is,the more conducive to promoting the labor bias tendency of China's industrial technical change.This feature is relatively obvious in the high trade openness industry,the labor intensive industry and the high-tech industry.(3)There is no significant inverted "U"relationship between the level of offshoring and the technological progress in China's industrial sector.(4)Increase of R&D capital intensity is conducive to enhancing the offshoring level and improving the labor bias tendency in China's industrial technology progress,which is significant in the high trade openness industry,low trade openness industry,labor intensive industry and high technology industry.(5)The greater the proportion of R&D personnel,the higher the offshoring level is,the more obvious the labor bias tendency of China's industrial technology progress.(6)With the enhancement of intellectual property rights protection,the tendency of the offshoring expansion to the labor bias of China's industrial technology progress is more obvious.The impact of directed technical change on the growth of China's industrial total factor productivity(TFP).Directed technical change is not the ultimate goal of international trade and production.For directed technical change,it is very important to benefit the growth of TFP.On the basis of previous analysis,this dissertation further explores the relationship between directed technical change and TFP growth,which may provide a judgement for identifying the advantages and disadvantages of the impact of international trade on directed technical change in China's industrial sector.This part develops analytical framework of Klump et al(2007,2012)and Le'on-Ledesma et al(2010,2015),using Kmenta technology to separate TFP functions with the technical change bias from the standardized CES production function,with the help of biased technical change index,the integration of technological congruence theory in recent years,the mechanism of the influence of biased technical change and its degree on the growth of TFP is theoretically revealed.The theoretical analysis shows that the ultimate change of TFP growth rate depends on the result of the combined effect of four kinds of effect forces.(1)The growth rate of factor-augmenting technical change is the direct force of the change of TFP growth rate.(2)The strength change among factor substitution elasticity,capital deepening growth rate and factor enhanced technological progress affects and changes the growth rate of TFP.(3)the direction and degree of biased technical change on TFP growth rate depends not only on the degree of congruence between biased technical change and factor deepening,but also on the strength change of factor-augmenting technical change.The empirical test of the data from China's industrial sector shows that:(1)Growth rate of capital biased technical change has a positive effect on the TFP growth rate in China's industrial sector,while the degree of capital biased technical change has a negative impact on the growth rate of TFP.(2)The rate of capital biased technical change(rate of labor-augmenting technical change)is the main force for the increase in the growth rate of TFP.(3)The positive effect of capital biased technical change is greater than the negative effect of capital biased technical change.Comprehensive effect is that the net effect of the current capital biased technical change on the growth rate of TFP in China's industrial sector is positive.In addition,the research from the perspective of sub industry shows that The rate of labor-augmenting technical change is the most important force of TFP growth in most industries in China,which is especially evident in traditional manufacturing and emerging equipment manufacturing industry.In most industries,the proportion allocation change is not consistent with the factor efficiency growth.With the rapid growth of capital deepening in the industry,the lagging of capital efficiency hinders the further upgrading of TFP.There has not been a good coordination relationship between the traditional heavy industry and the public industrial sector,and between the factor efficiency and the promotion of capital.According to the main conclusions of this dissertation,under the background of new open economic system and industrialization,we should take the following trade policies and industry development policies to promote biased technical change that is conducive to TFP improvement.(1)Rationally adjust the export structure and expand the spillover effect of export trade on capital-intensive industries.(2)Ror the industries with high trade openness,labor intensive and high-tech,the industry import structure should be reasonably optimized,aimed at improving the spillover effect of labor biased technical change form import trade.(3)Labor(including skilled labor)intensive industries should actively expand offshoring to improve the labor biased technical progress spillover effect.(4)High trade openness,labor intensive and high-tech industry should strengthen R&D capital and personnel input and strengthen IPR protection to promote more labor biased technological progress spillover effect.(5)In the process of foreign trade development,we should pay more attention to the consistency between the factor endowments and the growth of factor efficiency,so as to implement the strategy of scale development and technological progress that is conducive to the promotion of TFP.