The Decomposition And Conversion Process Of Agricultural Economic Growth's Motive Forces In China

Since the “reform and opening up”,the sharp rise in the cost of agricultural production has had a great impact on the growth of the agricultural economy in China.Under the dual squeeze of high agricultural products prices and the rising of production costs,the sustainable growth of agricultural economy has been unable to continue the traditional mode of investment in growth.The traditional agricultural economic which driving by increasing the number of factor inputs is no longer sustainable.In the long run,In the long run,technical progress is the only sustainable momentum to promote China's agricultural economic growth.In December 2015,the Central Rural Working Conference proposed reducing production costs and improving agricultural efficiency and competitiveness as an important task of "agricultural supply-side reform." In 2017,the "No.1 Document" of the Central Government proposed the requirement of further promoting the structural reform of the agricultural supply side and accelerating the cultivation of new momentum for agricultural and rural development.Under the background of agricultural supply-side reform,in order to promote China's agricultural economic growth from a traditional investment-oriented model to a new model driven by technological progress,this paper proposes that we should focus on solving the following five scientific questions: Firstly,we want to know how many kinds of motive forces are contained in our current agricultural economic growth.Secondly,we hope to theoretically determine the direction of motive forces conversion for sustainable agricultural economic growth.Thirdly,we expect to reveal what changes have taken place in the motive forces conversion of China's agricultural economic growth since the reform and opening up.Fourthly,we expect to find out the motive forces conversion history of China's agricultural economic growth,and analyze whether the existing conversion direction meets the theoretical expectation.Fifthly,we want put forward the future improving direction of the motive forces conversion to achieve the sustainable growth of agricultural economy in China.This paper reconstructs the input-output system and motive forces decomposition frame work of agricultural economic growth under the assumption of "non-unit substitution elasticity","the share of factor income can vary" and "non-Hicks neutral technological progress".Then we introduce the latest directed technological progress theory into the agricultural economy research field and theoretically construct the changing laws of motive forces conversion of agricultural economic growth.Based on the production data of China's agriculture at the national,provincial and agricultural levels from 1978 to 2015,this paper uses the normalized supply-side system approach to estimate the input-output system of agricultural economic growth in China.Then,we respectively analyze the changing trend of China's agricultural factor inputs,biased technical progress and the share of factor income.On the basis of clarifying the variation trend of motive forces in agricultural economic growth,this paper also reveals the conversion history of motive forces in China's agricultural economic growth.Finally,we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the empirical results and theoretical expectations,and clarify the stage where China's agricultural economy is growing and put forward proposals to promote sustainable growth of agricultural economic.Along the putting forward scientific issues ?reviewing of relevant theories and research? reconstructing the input-output system of agricultural economic growth ? setting up a motive forces decomposition framework of agricultural economic growth ? concluding the law of motive forces conversion in agricultural economic growth ? empirically clarifying the variation trend of motive forces in China's agricultural economic growth ? revealing the conversion history of motive forces in China's agricultural economic growth,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the motive forces decomposition and motive forces conversion laws of agricultural economic growth,this paper finds that there are two kinds of the motive forces of agricultural economic growth: the change of factor input and the biased technical progress,and both of them need to realize the influence on agricultural economic growth through the income share of factor which plays a role as an "influence coefficient".In the long run,the mode of growth of agricultural economic growth needs to be transformed from the traditional mode which is driven by the growth of input factors to the new mode which is driven by biased technical progress.At the same time,it can be concluded from the variation rules of biased technical progress and factor income share that there is a convergence trend of the speed of factor-augmenting technical progresses among abundant factor and scarce factor.Those factor-augmenting technical progresses' s share of the contribution to agricultural economic growth is also determined by the level of income share of abundant factor or scarce factor at the balanced growth path(BGP)status.Under the strong substitution relationship,the relative income share of the abundant factor tends to rise during the transition to the balanced economic growth(BGP)status;under the weak alternative relationship,the relative income share of the scare factor tends to rise during the transition to the balanced economic growth(BGP)status.Therefore,within the process of biased technical progress,in the state of balanced growth path(BGP),the factor-augmenting technical progress of the factor whose income share is higher will become the most important motive force to improve the speed of biased technological progress and agricultural economic growth,the factor-augmenting technical progress of the factor whose income share is lower will become the secondary motive force to improve the speed of biased technological progress and agricultural economic growth.(2)From the perspective of the identification tools of motive forces of agricultural economic growth,there are some errors in the parameter definition of factor-augmenting CES production function and the using of normalized supply-side system methods in domestic and foreign researches,which can be summarized as follows: Firstly,some of these researches ignore the change of generalized technical progress parameters and factor assignment parameters during the process of normalization of factor-augmenting CES production function.Secondly,the definition of factor substitution elasticity isn't rewritten with the recognition of the factor-augmenting technical progress,so the factor-augmenting parameters are ignored in the calculation formula.Thirdly,due to the wrong definition of factor substitution elasticity,the initial value of nonlinear estimation in the normalized supply system is set in the wrong direction,then some conclusions of technology regression is obtained.Fourthly,most of the researches estimate the normalized supply side systems under the assumption of perfect competitive market,which is out of line with the actual economic growth and may lead to the deviation of the estimation results.Fifthly,due to the influence of random disturbances,the technical progress rates obtained by these researches have fluctuating features by using the standardized supply-side system estimation results.In this paper,we trace and correct the problems in the above five aspects in order to popularize the correct way to define the parameters of factor-augmenting CES production function and to promote the correct use of the normalized supply-side system approach.(3)From the perspective of the changing trend of agricultural production factor input in China,on the condition of two input factors,the negative impact which comes from the decreasing trend of agricultural labor input on agricultural economic growth has become even more obvious.The input of agricultural capital has increased substantially and the growth potential is still relatively adequate.The abundant feature of capital is constantly highlighted,and the scarcity feature of labor is continuously enhanced.In addition,In addition,there is a clear discrepancy between the reduction in labor input and the growth in capital investment among regions.On the condition of four input factors,the negative growth of agricultural labor is more obvious.The level of agricultural mechanization continues to rise.The changes of land input are different among crops,and the input of chemical fertilizer also shows a rising trend.The abundant features of agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizer continue to increase,and the scarcity of labor and land tends to rise.In addition,the changes in the inputs of food crops and commercial crops have correspondingly significant differences.(4)From the perspective of the variation trend of the speed and the direction of biased technical progress in China's agriculture,on the condition of two factors and four factors,the input factors of agricultural production are substitute to each other under the influence of biased technical progress(factor-augmenting parameter).On the condition of two factors,the speed of capital-augmenting technical progress mainly shows a downward trend,while the speed of labor-augmenting technical progress shows an upward trend.In general,China's agricultural biased technical progress tends to use abundant factor(capital)and save scarce factor(labor),but the direction of some areas' agricultural biased technical progress tends to be irrational.On the condition of four factors,the speed of four factors' augmenting technical progress tends to decrease,the direction of biased technical progress is in line with theoretical expectation only within labor type factors.However,there appears an irrational phenomenon in the direction of land type factors' biased technical progress which biased technical progress tends to use scarce factor(land)and save abundant factor(fertilizers).(5)From the perspective of the variation trend of China's agricultural factors' income share,on the condition of two factors,the income share of capital tends to rise under the influence of biased technical progress and changes in factor inputs,but the income share of capital is still low.The income share of labor tends to decrease but its income share is still high.Biased technical progress is the main reason for the change in the share of factor income.Changes in factor inputs are also factors that affect the change in the share of factor income.On the condition of four factors,the relative income share of agricultural machinery and land tends to rise,while the relative income share of chemical fertilizers and labor tended to decrease.Biased technical progress is the main reason for the change in the relative income share of factors.(6)From the perspective of the conversion of motive forces in China's agricultural economic growth,on the condition of two factors,the growth rate of China's agricultural economy is mainly characterized by fluctuations of about 5%.The contribution of changes in factor inputs to the growth of agricultural economy tends to decline.The contribution of biased technical progress to the growth of agricultural economy tends to increase.And there is also a conversion trend of motive forces in the biased technical progress.The main driving force of biased technological progress in the eastern provinces turns from labor-augmenting technical progress and capital-augmenting technical progress to labor-augmenting technical progress.The main driving force of biased technological progress in the middle and western provinces are labor-augmenting technical progress and capital-augmenting technical progress.On the condition of four factors,the fluctuation characteristics of crop output growth rate are prominent.The contribution of biased technical progress to the growth of crop output tends to decline,and the biased technical progress tends to become the only driving force to agricultural economic growth.Labor-augmenting technical progress has always been an important driver of biased technical progress,and agricultural machinery-augmenting technical progress and land-augmenting technical progress are gradually becoming the main motive force of agricultural biased technical progress in China.Based on the conclusions,this paper proposes the following five suggestions: Firstly,We should improve the level of agricultural human capital,speed up the speed of Labor-augmenting technical progress,make full use of the advantages of labor's high income share and open the sustainable motive force for agricultural economic growth by replacing the demographic dividend with the bonus of human capital.Secondly,increasing the share of capital income and making use of the rapid speed of capital-augmenting technical progress to inject more motive force into agricultural economic growth.Thirdly,we should take measures to stop the aggrandizement tendency of agricultural biased technical progress' s direction,and set the optimal plan to adjust the technical progress' s direction among different provinces.Fourthly,we also need to improve the "liquidity" of land factor,revitalize the scarcity features of land factor and reverse the unreasonable development in land-using direction of biased technical progress at the crop level.Fifthly,strengthening the investment in agricultural research,agriculture and biased technological progress to provide growth protection,to provide protection for increasing the speed of agricultural biased technical progress in China.