An Empirical Study On The Trade Effect Of Forest Products In CAFTA

The Free Trade Area aims to gradually eliminate all discriminatory trade barriers and other non-trade barriers between member countries,to achieve free trade between member states,and to maintain trade barriers between member countries and non-member countries of the FTA.CAFTA is not only the first FTA in China,but also the world's third largest free trade zone.ASEAN is an important forest product trade market for China.In particular,since the start of CAFTA in 2010,the trade in forest products between China and ASEAN countries has developed rapidly.However,China has been in a net import state,and the net import volume has been expanding.The classical theory holds that the FTA can influence the trade structure and trade scale of the member countries through the static effect and the dynamic effect of the trade.However,due to the comprehensive effect of various factors,the trade effect is not consistent with the performance of different countries,as many other researches have supported.This paper focuses on the theoretical and empirical research on the trade effect of forest products in CAFTA.Based on the trade characteristics caused by the characteristics of forestry industry,this paper analyzed the path and intrinsic logic of the trade effect of forest products,and established the general analytical framework.The trade effect of the static and dynamic forest products in the FTA were tested empirically,and the frontier trade efficiency,trade level and influence factors of trade efficiency were analyzed further.The main conclusions are as follows:Based on the trade characteristics of forest products and related theories,the paper analyzed the framework of the trade effect of forest products in the FTA.The static trade effect of forest products is formed through trade transfer and trade by affecting capital and resource allocation.The dynamic effect is formed through the path of scale effect,competition effect,technical effect and investment effect.The internal logic is intraregional trade liberalization makes the product market expand,intraregional trade power bring out in short-term in enterprises with comparative advantages,trade creation and trade transfer occurs and achieve the capital effect and resource allocation effect through trade.At the same time,the effect of capital and resource allocation makes enterprises more actively involved in intraregional trade,improve the efficiency of resource allocation and obtain capital gains.On the one hand,with the expansion of the trade scale among member countries in the long term,the accumulation of capital and the relative change of factor prices lead to the change of resource endowment structure and the comparative advantage.On the other hand,the intensification of trade competition at the same time bring the transfer and diffusion of technology,enterprises have the inherent and external power of technological progress,forming a dynamic comparative advantage through the imitation and learning.Changes in comparative advantage have led to changes in the trade structure and trade flows of member states,new trade transitions and creative effects.During the period,due to the characteristics of forestry products determined by the trade characteristics of forest products,government behavior will play a supporting role in static and dynamic trade effects.The particularity of the forestry industry,which makes trade in forest products has the characteristics of trade ability and non-trade concerns.The former may offset the trade effect,the latter may expand the trade effect.The statistical characteristics of CAFTA at the national level show that the trade volume between China and ASEAN forest products is expanding constantly,and the proportion of forest products trade in the region is also on the rise.China and ASEAN forest products trade competition is showing decreasing trend.The trade complementarity of China's forest products export with ASEAN forest products imported is strong,and show growing trend.However,the trade complementarity of China's imported forest products with ASEAN exported forest products is weak,and is showing declining trend.The reason is that ASEAN countries implemented export restrictions policy on logs and other primary forest products.Statistical analysis shows that China-ASEAN forest products trade has static effects and dynamic effects,but show different performance in different countries and different products trade transfer and trade creation effect at different stages.The results of the static trade effect of forest products show that the construction of CAFTA has a significant effect on the trade between member countries and non-member countries in terms of the overall export of forest products,and there is a significant negative effect between the trades of the member states.The analysis of the export of specific forest products showed,the FTA has a significant positive effects on forest fruit,paper and paper products and wood pulp(2010-2015)export trade.In terms of the overall import of forest products,there is a negative relationship between the construction of CAFTA and the trade in forest products among member countries.The analysis of the import of specific forest products shows that the FTA has trade creation and trade transfer effects on sawn timber,wood pulp,paper and paper products(2004-2010).It indicated that the FTA contributed to the trade of forest products,while the export restriction policy of primary forest products has a greater impact on intraregional trade.The empirical analysis of the dynamic trade effect of forest products shows that the main reason for the growth of forest trade in CAFTA is the supply and demand of forest products in the region is expanded.In addition to individual countries,the export structure of forest products among member countries has positive effects on the growth of trade,but the impact of the import structure of forest products on trade is negative.The results means that the FTA improved the trade structure of forest products among member countries in a certain degree,and promoted the trade of forest products.The effect of competition on the growth of forest products trade between member countries of CAFTA is not consistent.Among them,the improvement of export competitiveness of forest products in China has a stimulating effect on the growth of forest products.The forest products of other member countries do not have export competitiveness in the Chinese market and have not played a stimulating effect on the growth of China's forest products.A further analysis of the trade efficiency and influencing factors of forest products trade show that the trade efficiency of forest products between China and ASEAN countries is on the rise,which means that member countries can improve their trade market environment and accelerate the development of bilateral forest products trade through the construction of FTA.The improvement of trade free degree of member countries can directly promote the trade efficiency of forest products.At the same time,the efficiency of government,the improvement of financial and monetary freedom can indirectly promote the efficiency of forest products.At last,the efficiency of forest products trade is also determined by the tightness of the shipping of exporting countries with the world maritime network.