Research On Green Supply Chain Decisions Based On Overconfidence

To alleviate the damage of human activities to ecological environment and meet the growing green consumers' demand,manufacturers have developed green products,converted ordinary products into green products,and sold them to consumers through various channels.Implementing green supply chain management has become a development strategy for enterprises to improve their core competitiveness.However,a large number of empirical studies have found that,in reality,people generally tend to be overconfident,and overconfidence affects people's decision-making.In the decisions of green supply chains,decision-makers are usually overconfident.They overestimate consumers' sensitivity to product greenness or(and)overestimate product demand accurately.Overconfidence may lead to the decisions of manufacturers and retailers deviating from the optimal values when they are rational,which will bring adverse effects to enterprises.In view of this,based on the existing green supply chain decisions literature,the paper considers the decision-makers' overconfident behavior and investigates the overconfident manufacturer's decisions on product greenness and output in direct sale channel.Then,introduce retailers to study green supply chain decisions when decision-makers are overconfident in a single channel.Again,introduce dual-channel to study dual-channel green supply chain decisions when manufacturers and retailers are overconfident.Finally,introduce competition to study green supply chain decisions when decision-makers are overconfident in the environment of manufacturer competition and supply chain competition.By using game theory,decision optimization,principal-agent,comparative analysis and simulation analysis,the influence of decision-makers' overconfidence on product greenness,product pricing and enterprise profits are discussed.The research contents and conclusions are as follows.(1)Green product manufacturers' decisions based on overconfidence in the direct sale channel.In manufacturers' direct selling environment,based on newsboy model,research the decisions of product greenness and output when the manufacturer has overestimation and over-precision behavior,and analyze the influence of manufacturers' overconfidence on product greenness,output and profit.The study found that,the product chosen is greener when the manufacturer is overconfident,but the profit of the manufacturer is lower;when the product is low-profit,overconfidence leads to a lower output;when the product is high-profit,the situation where the output deviates from the rational decision-making value is determined by the consumers' green sensitivity coefficient and the green input cost coefficient.(2)Research on single channel green supply chain decisions based on overconfidence.In the green supply chain consisting of a green product manufacturer and a retailer,the decision problems when decision-makers are over-confidence is studied in the case of manufacturers driving product green design and retailers driving product green design.In the circumstance of manufacturers driving product green design,the problems of cost-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain is discussed.Finally,the decision results of the two cases are compared and analyzed.The study found that,when manufacturers drive product green design,the retailer's overconfidence leads to a decline in product greenness,wholesale price and retail price,and the manufacturer's overconfidence leads to product greenness,wholesale price and retail price increase,but the overconfidence of the two decision-makers will lead to a decline in the profits of supply chain members.When retailers drive product green design,the retailer's overconfidence leads to increased product greenness,retail price,production,and profits of the manufacturer and the retailer.When manufacturers drive product green design,cost-sharing contract is helpful to improve product greenness and the profit of supply chain,but when the retailer has a higher overconfidence,cost-sharing contract is not good for the overconfident retailer.(3)Research on dual-channel green supply chain decisions based on overconfidence.In the environment where manufacturers sell products simultaneously through both self-operated online direct sale channel and traditional retail channel,it is considered that the retailer determines the unified retail prices and the manufacturer and the retailer to determine their own channel retail prices,to study the decision-making of green supply chains when decision-makers are overconfident.It is found that,when adopting unified pricing strategy,the retailer's overconfidence leads to the decrease of product greenness,wholesale price and the manufacturer's profit,while the manufacturer's overconfidence leads to the increase of product greenness,wholesale price,retail price and the retailer's profit,but the manufacturer's profit decreases.When adopting an independent pricing strategy,the retailer's overconfidence leads to the decline of product greenness,wholesale price,direct channel retail price and the manufacturer's profit;while the manufacturer's overconfidence leads to the increase of product greenness,wholesale prices,retail prices for both channels,and the manufacturer's profit.(4)Research on green supply chain decisions based on overconfidence under competition.In the supply chain structure of two manufacturers selling products through the same retailer and separate retailers,the paper studies the decision-making of green supply chains when decision-makers are overconfident,and explores the influence of the retailer's overconfidence,the manufacturer's overconfidence,price competition and greenness competition on product greenness,wholesale prices,retail prices and profits of supply chain members.It is found that in the competition of manufacturers,the retailer's overconfidence not only leads to the simultaneous decline of greenness,wholesale prices and retail prices of two products,but also leads to the simultaneous decline of profits of the two manufacturers and the retailer.Manufacturer 1's overconfidence leads to the greenness,wholesale prices,retail prices of product 1 and product 2 increase,but the manufacturer 1's profit of decreases and the manufacturer 2's profit increases.In the competition of supply chain,retailer 1's overconfidence leads to the decrease of greenness of two products,wholesale prices and retail price of product 1,profits of retailer 1 and manufacturer 1.Manufacturer 1's overconfidence leads to the increase of greenness,retail prices,wholesale prices and profits of manufacturer 2 and retailer 2,the decline of the profits of manufacturer 1 and retailer 1.The intensification of price competition leads to the increase of greenness,wholesale prices,retail prices and profits of all members of the supply chain.The intensification of product greenness competition leads to the decrease of greenness,wholesale prices,retail prices and profits of all members of the supply chain.The innovation of this paper is mainly in the following aspects.(1)Studying green supply chain decisions from the perspective of product green design driven by overconfident retailers is innovative from the research perspective.(2)Considering the influence of overconfidence on dual-channel supply chain decisions has certain theoretical innovation value.(3)It is novel to study the effect of overconfidence on green supply chain decisions in competiition.(4)It is an innovative attempt to explore the supply chain contracts under overconfidence in green supply chains.