| The topic of this article is proposed in the context of the rapid impact of information technology on social and economic life.At present,the transformation of new technologies is still at an early stage,innovations are emerging one after another,and the development prospects are difficult to predict.The impact of information technology,especially digital transformation,has a potential impact on all links of the insurance business value chain.From product design,pricing,marketing,underwriting,reinsurance,and claims to other related services,digitalization provides new solutions for the insurance business.Digitalization can help insurance companies simplify processes and eliminate redundant links in the industry that are lagging behind in responding to market changes.However,due to the imbalance of technological capabilities,competition in the insurance market will also increase.The growth of competition has put pressure on insurance companies to achieve profits,which will force insurance companies to improve their overall operational efficiency.This result may lead to new professional quality requirements for industry practitioners,and may fundamentally change the organization logic of insurance companies.the way.The transformation of information technology will eventually reshape the insurance business ecosystem and the value creation process on it.At the same time,increased competition and lower profit margins will weaken insurance companies' ability to withstand unexpected losses and catastrophe risks.The uncertainty of technological innovation will also bring about actuarial model risk,corporate reputation risk and cross-industry competition risk.When the organization logic and value creation process of insurance changes,the insurance market structure also changes.During the turbulent period of structural reorganization and change,new systemic risks may appear.In a specific transition period,regulators and the entire industry need to re-examine the industry's risk characteristics,development strategy,business ecology,value creation,organizational logic,solvency,and system risk supervision.Therefore,under the change of information technology,understanding the changes in the organization logic of insurance and the process of value creation,and how the risk evolves in this changing process,has become a pre-problem to see the direction of industry reform and risk management.Deconstructing the inherent mechanism of insurance market risk evolution under the transformation of information technology can help us to see how the inherent characteristics of the insurance industry and the mechanism of external technical shock interweave,and make forward-looking predictions on the future development trend and hidden risks of the insurance market.Therefore,we can provide a reference for decision-making for insurance supervision and industry collaboration in a period of change.Although it is more common in hot discussions between public media and lecture exchanges,the question of how to evolve and prevent risks has not yet formed a rigorous academic research paradigm in the insurance market under new technological changes.In order to solve this problem,this paper attempts to use the interdisciplinary theory of complex system theory,industrial organization theory,actuarial theory,game theory and operations research to build a scientific research framework with both practical and academic significance.The insurance market is a self-adaptive complex system with rich subject forms,openness,and nonlinear interaction.Insurance market risk is an emerging phenomenon under its complex network structure,and its evolution process conforms to the general evolution law of complex networks.It is the continuous variation,enhancement and transmission of risk factors under the mutual relationship between subject nodes,breaking the risk threshold After a loss of results.Therefore,this article clarifies the logical basis of risk evolution from the two aspects of the role of external risk sources in the insurance market and the internal risk generation mechanism,and builds an overall analysis framework for the evolution of systemic risks in the insurance industry under the breakthrough of information technology.First,this article reveals the mechanism of information technology innovation on the risk of the insurance industry through the characteristics of digital technology;secondly,based on the analysis of the general process of risk evolution,through the transmission of the insurance market risk factors and the competition and cooperation relationship of the market network.Therefore,the evolutionary generation mechanism of market risk has been developed;then,combined with the micro-decision and game process of insurance market players,the risk factors caused by the breakthrough of new technologies will be put on the market network nodes and network structure as an impact,which to simulate the evolution process of insurance market risk;finally,combined with the results of model operation and logical analysis,combined with the operation results of the model and logical analysis,the insurance market risk evolution mechanism is given from the two dimensions of enterprise and industry.The main research content and results of this article are divided into the following aspects:1.In the first chapter,this article uses the theory of industrial organization to comb the general rules of digital technology's general effect on all industries,from which to derive the prospects for insurance industry reform under the information technology revolution and the resulting potential industry risks:(1)Digital technology has triggered a "disintermediation" phenomenon.(2)The upgrading of industry innovation is uninterrupted and iterative.(3)The boundaries and forms of new insurance products and services have become blurred.(4)Information technology changes will generally change the organizational logic of insurance companies and the insurance industry.Value creation activities can occur across organizational boundaries and even across traditional industry boundaries.(5)The breakage or reorganization of the insurance company's existing value chain triggered the risk of its business failure,and even caused the bankruptcy of the enterprise.The entry of cross-border enterprises will further aggravate the complex,volatile and rapidly changing competitive landscape of the insurance market.2.In the second chapter,this paper uses the evolutionary theory of complex systems to deduce the general process of insurance market risk evolution,and gives the overall logical framework for studying the mechanism of risk evolution:(1)Clarify the external The role of risk sources.(2)Constructed the generation mechanism of internal risk evolution.(3)Two analysis dimensions to explain the evolution mechanism of insurance market risk.3.In the second chapter,this paper also studies the transmission network of insurance market risk factors.Through literature reading and logical analysis,the main risk factors under information technology breakthroughs which be divided in 10 categories are sorted out.Combined with the actual development of the insurance industry in the process of digital transformation,the specific transmission matrix between risk factors is given.By identifying the mechanical diagram of the conduction relationship,the key risk source factors and the most vulnerable factors that trigger the insurance market risk are identified.4.In the third chapter of this article,we summarize the risk evolution mechanism of insurance companies from the three aspects of the core economic indicators that affect the insurance business-the premium scale,the loss level of the underwriters and the cost of new technologies:(1)The success of the digital transformation strategy,changes in user preferences,innovative products and technologies,and the consumption habits of policyholders all affect the market size of insurance companies.Changes in market size may cause the company's business failure under the superposition of different operating conditions.(2)When the change in the loss distribution of the insured object does not match the tolerance of the actuarial assumption,under the influence of the scale of the premium,the enterprise may incur operating losses.(3)The high cost of implementing new technologies triggers the business difficulties of the enterprise.5.In the fourth chapter of this article,based on the Monte Carlo method,under the different scenarios of external Internet technology companies entering the market,the results of industry shrinkage and value creation network destruction are discussed,and the risk evolution mechanism of the insurance industry under the information technology revolution is given:(1)New technology innovation makes the risks of some underwriters no longer random.The adverse selection caused by the new information asymmetry will lead to the failure of insurance companies.The adjustment of policy prices will further promote the crowding out effect of the market,resulting in the disappearance of the relevant insurance business market.At the same time,the complete determination of the distribution of individual losses makes it difficult to pool enough homogeneous risks,and insurance products become a financial plan for risk reserves.(2)When the Internet platform can converge insurance business at a lower cost,it can rely on its decisive market position to demand excess profits from insurance companies.At the same time,the flaws and hidden risks of platform construction logic may cause huge losses of insurance companies and systemic risks of the entire market.(3)Digital technology innovation companies have a monopoly position in risk data and advanced professional capabilities in risk management.Alternative competitive products will reduce the scale of the related insurance business,causing the demand market to shrink or even disappear.Traditional insurance companies are marginalized in the related insurance business field,and they can only look for the limited survival space that can play their comparative advantages under the ecosystem built by digital companies.6.The fifth chapter of this paper points out the challenges of innovative insurance business to supervision,and gives three basic principles and a series of strategic recommendations for insurance supervision in the industry transformation of information technology revolution. |
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