Research On China's Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism

With the cancellation of the upper limit of the deposit rate of financial institutions in October 2015,China's interest rate marketization reform has basically been completed,interest rate control has become a history,and China's interest rate marketization has entered a new stage.At the same time,a variety of financial innovations have emerged in an endless stream,the degree of fluctuation of money demand has increased significantly,the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy has been increasingly questioned,the transmission mechanism of monetary policy pegged to the money supply has been blocked,and the pressure of monetary policy transformation has been increasing.Under this background,the research interest rates transmission mechanism in our country is not only related to the smooth transition of China's monetary policy,for our country whether to offer the decision basis for monetary policy transition,also helps to monetary policy through interest rate channel of investment,consumption and import and export regulatory effect of aggregate demand,promote our country monetary policy and the financial industry to better support the development of the real economy.This article analyzes the three levels of interest rate transmission mechanism from the central bank to commercial banks,between commercial banks,commercial banks to enterprises,and residents,and the evolution logic of the interest rate transmission mechanism under the operating framework of different price-type monetary policies,and delves into the impact of the interest rate transmission mechanism.Behind the mechanism,clarify the process of policy interest rate transmission from the central bank to commercial banks,enterprises and residents and its implicit interest rate transmission mechanism,and propose countermeasures to improve the effectiveness of China's interest rate transmission mechanism and to guide the effectiveness of China's interest rate transmission mechanism.The main contents of the study are as follows:Firstly,the domestic and foreign research literature on the interest rate transmission mechanism is reviewed and evaluated,the differences between the topic selection of this article and the previous research literature are highlighted and emphasized,the research objectives of this article are clarified,and the innovation points of this article are proposed.Secondly,the related theory of interest rate transmission mechanism is reviewed.The Marx interest rate theory and the classical,Keynesian,neoclassical,and monetarist theory of interest rate transmission mechanism are summarized and summarized,and the theory of interest rate transmission mechanism at different historical stages is summarized,and the respective theories are analyzed.And the author compare different theoretical views of Marxism and Western economic schools on the transmission mechanism of interest rates.Thirdly,analyze the process and mechanism of interest rate transmission in China.It mainly introduces the transmission of interest rates through three types of subjects:central bank,commercial bank,and enterprises and residents in China,that is,the transmission from the central bank to commercial banks,the transmission between commercial banks,and the transmission from commercial banks to enterprises and residents.By examining the process of interest rate transmission in each level,the main mechanisms of different interest rates and different markets on the interest rate transmission mechanism in each level are analyzed,and the inherent logic and characteristics of interest rate transmission in each level are summarized,and the interest rate transmission in China as a whole is examined.By analyzing the process and mechanism of China 's interest rate transmission,the main problems of China 's interest rate transmission mechanism are pointed out.Fourthly,it mainly analyzes the empirical models used to guide China's interest rate transmission mechanism and the difficulties.Looking beyond China 's interest rate transmission mechanism to look at our country 's interest rate transmission mechanism,using the combination of history and logic,from the perspective of the three levels of interest rate transmission,analyze the main interest rates such as the interest rate corridor,yield curve,qualitative easing,and negative interest rate policies.The mechanism of the regulation mode on the channeling of the interest rate transmission mechanism,summarizes the empirical model of the channeling of the interest rate transmission mechanism in the major developed economies in the world,reveals the evolutionary logic of the channeling of the interest rate transmission mechanism through the perspective of political economy,and points out the mechanism of channeling the interest rate transmission mechanism in China difficulty.Fifthly,study the countermeasures to improve China's interest rate transmission mechanism.Based on the in-depth analysis and summary of the main problems and difficulties in the interest rate transmission mechanism in China,combined with the evolutionary logic of the interest rate transmission mechanism and the laws contained in international experience,this paper proposes five aspects of China's interest rate transmission mechanism resistance against existing problems.Stagnant countermeasures and solutions to enhance the effectiveness of China's interest rate transmission mechanism,and analyzed and discussed each countermeasure in detail.Finally,the main research conclusions of this paper are summarized and refined,and the research direction and focus of the next step are pointed out.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Central banks,commercial banks,enterprises,and residents basically constitute the core participants of interest rate transmission in China,and the mechanism and transmission effect of the interest rate transmission mechanism on the three levels are different.(2)Commercial banks are not passive recipients of the central bank's interest rate policy.The active response behavior of commercial banks can objectively reduce the effectiveness of the interest rate transmission mechanism.(3)The central bank should not only regulate short-term interest rates,but should combine the regulation of short-term interest rates with the regulation of medium-and long-term interest rates.(4)The liquidity premium significantly affects money market interest rates and long-term bond rates,while the risk premium significantly affects long-term loan interest rates.(5)A mature and perfect interest rate marketization environment is the fundamental guarantee for channeling the interest rate transmission mechanism.(6)The interest rate transmission mechanism is not static,and needs to be fine-tuned and optimized as the financial system and market environment change.The main innovations of this paper include:(1)This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the transmission mechanism of interest rate in China,that is,the transmission subject-transmission level-transmission market-transmission effect.The effect of interest rate transmission is mainly determined by the subject,level and market of interest rate transmission.In this theoretical framework,this paper analyzes the interest rate transmission mechanism from three levels: "central bank to commercial bank","between commercial banks" and "commercial bank to enterprises and residents".This paper not only analyzes the mechanism of interest rate transmission in each level,but also studies the mechanism of interest rate transmission in China from three levels as a whole.It is found that there are obvious differences in the transmission effect of China's interest rate at three levels.In the transmission link of commercial banks to enterprises and residents,it is most likely that the transmission mechanism of interest rate is inefficient and ineffective.Therefore,the transmission of interest rate from commercial banks to enterprises and residents should be taken as the key link to guide the transmission mechanism of China's interest rate.(2)This paper combines the interest rate theory of Marx and Keynesian school,through the perspective of political economy,through the research method of combining history and logic,analyzes the empirical model of the main developed economies in different stages of economic and financial development to dredge the interest rate transmission mechanism.This paper analyzes in detail the mechanism of the interest rate corridor mode,the Treasury bond yield curve regulation mode,the qualitative easing policy and the negative interest rate policy to guide the interest rate transmission,and excavates the evolution of the interest rate transmission mechanism and the logic of the dredging,so as to provide a sample reference for the dredging of the interest rate transmission mechanism in China.This paper proposes that the basic logic of channeling the interest rate transmission mechanism is that the central bank's interest rate regulation policy should be able to have an effective impact on the long-term interest rate,and finally achieve the goal of controlling inflation rate,aggregate demand and the real economy with the long-term interest rate as the link.(3)This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the transmission effect of China's interest rate from the central bank to the commercial bank,between the commercial banks and between the commercial banks and between the commercial banks to the enterprises and residents,which makes the theoretical deduction tested by data.Data test and trend analysis are carried out on the interest rates of different periods in each level and the transmission effect among the representative interest rates of each level.In the first level,we test the transmission effect of policy interest rate to short-term benchmark interest rate and short-term market interest rate,in the second level,we test the transmission effect of short-term market interest rate and short-term benchmark interest rate to medium and long-term benchmark interest rate,in the third level,we test the transmission effect of short-term market interest rate to medium and long-term loan interest rate,medium and long-term treasury bond yield and medium and long-term basis The transmission effect of quasi interest rate to medium and long term loan interest rate.On this basis,we test the transmission effect of different term interest rates on inflation rate and economic growth as a whole.