| China's strategic opportunity in the new era lies in actively participating in and promoting the process of globalization,continuing to expand opening up,and making full use of "two resources" and "two markets" to realize "the world ideal".On the one hand,the social security system with the largest population in the world has been basically established,which has made great contributions to the development of the whole mankind.On the other hand,it is still difficult for to develop into a well-off society in an all-round way.How to realize the high quality development of economy under the background of the increasing impact of external demand is an urgent problem for China to attain the goal of modernization in the middle of this century.Expanding domestic demand and improving the system and mechanism of promoting consumption are the basic foothold of China's national economic development,and also the main driving forces of promoting China's high-quality economic development.In order to boost domestic demand and promote household consumption,the Chinese government has taken a series of measures to deepen the reform of the income distribution system,enhance household consumption capacity and promote the upgrading of consumption structure.Profound changes have taken place in the scale and structure of domestic market demand,further releasing the consumption potential of urban and rural residents.The overall scale of China's local market is in the forefront of the world.Export is an important driving force for China's economic growth,especially after China's accession to the WTO,its export growth has been double-digit for many years,leading the world trade and making an important contribution to China's economic growth.Although the downward pressure of international economy and trade is increasing compounded by the trade war,China's export trade is affected to a certain extent.But on the whole,exports remain strong resilient.At present and in the future,China will continue to firmly promote high-level opening up,develop a higher-level open economy,and promote reform and development through opening up.Exports still play an important role in promoting stable growth of China's economy and making full use of "two markets" and "two resources".There are many academic researches on the impact of the increase of local market demand on exports.These studies mainly focus on the impact of local market demand on export scale.The existing consensus is that the increase of local market demand can expand export scale,that is,there is a local market effect,and the two are not contradictory.However,the research on the impact of local market demand on export quality and the impact mechanism is just in its infancy,especially on the characterization and verification of demand induced innovation mechanism.These issues need further in-depth study.China has a huge local market and the largest middle-income group in the world.Especially in recent years,the precise poverty alleviation has raised the overall demand level.We should re-examine the demand driven supply mechanism.Studying the impact of local market demand on export quality is not only conducive to promoting the establishment of a long-term mechanism to expand domestic demand,but also conducive to China's efforts from the demand side and promoting the development of a strong trading country.Based on extensive reading and learning of the existing research results,this dissertation uses the theory of industrial organization,the theory of consumer behavior and the theory of new trade,and uses the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to systematically explore the impact of local market demand on the export quality of durable consumer goods and the impact mechanism.The research idea of this dissertation is: in the aspect of theoretical analysis,the ideas of effective competition and quality specialization in the local product quality market are integrated into Krugman's local market effect framework,and the hypothesis of consumers' quality preference is modified by reference to Latzer and Mayneris(2018),so as to analyze the impact of changes in demand scale and demand structure on export The impact of the quality of export products and the impact mechanism,put forward the relevant propositions that need to be verified.In empirical analysis,OLS,FGLS and quantile regression methods are used to verify the impact of local market demand on the export quality of durable consumer goods;conditional process mechanism is used to verify the impact of local market demand on the export quality of durable consumer goods from transnational and Chinese dimensions.Finally,according to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test,put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.The specific contents of this dissertation are as follows:Introduction in the dissertation mainly expounds the research background and significance from the global perspective and China's reality,introduces the research content,overall framework and research methods of this paper,and points out the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The first chapter is literature review.On the basis of extensive reading and learning of relevant literature at home and abroad,this dissertation systematically combs and summarizes the literature achievements closely related to this study.There are three main categories of related literature.The first is the study of local market demand,mainly combing the origin,evolution and empirical test of the theory of local market demand.The second is the research on the impact of market demand on the quality of export products,mainly from the perspective of total demand,consumption demand,import demand and local market demand from the perspective of large countries.Thirdly,the research on the mechanism of market demand affecting export quality summarizes the research trends of the existing literature on the mechanism of local market demand affecting export quality.Based on the review of the above literature,it is found that these literature research results have laid a solid theoretical foundation for this paper,but there is room for in-depth study.For example,the research from the perspective of demand is mostly based on import demand,the innovation mechanism is rarely based on demand induced innovation,and the literature of innovation driven export is not expanded to quality.Therefore,the impact of local market demand on export quality and its impact It is necessary to deepen the study of the response mechanism.The second chapter is the theoretical mechanism.This chapter first integrates the ideas of Krugman(1980),flam and Helpman(1987),Fajgelbaum(2011)and Dingel(2016)on the local market effect,effective competition and quality specialization of local product quality market,uses Latzer and Mayneris(2018)for reference and modifies the hypothesis of consumer quality preference,assuming that consumers have income heterogeneity and preference heterogeneity,and constructs a vertical model The intra industry trade model of differentiated products analyzes the impact of local demand scale and demand structure on the quality of export products.On this basis,the paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of export quality improvement caused by local market demand.Using Zweim üller and Brunner(2005)for reference and relaxing their research hypothesis of innovation market,we will base on a domestic This paper extends the analysis framework based on one domestic innovation to the two countries' trade situation,constructs a general equilibrium model including resource constraints and technological innovation,analyzes the micro impact mechanism of income difference induced by heterogeneous consumers on enterprises' technological innovation and technological innovation to promote the quality of export products,and derives three theoretical propositions to be verified in this paper.The third chapter is characteristic facts.The world market scale is analyzed by using the WTO goods trade database and the World Bank World Development Index database,and the demand scale,demand structure and export quality characteristics of durable consumer goods in the world market and China's local market between 1996 and 2016 are grouped and analyzed by income level.This paper calculates the quality and quantity margins of durable consumer goods in these different income groups from 2007 to 2016,and the proportion of China's exports of durable consumer goods to different income groups,and further calculates the total quality margin and growth rate of China's exports of durable consumer goods to 218 countries.This paper analyzes the correlation between the local market demand and the export quality of durable consumer goods,and finds that the scale and structure of the local market demand have a certain correlation with the improvement of the export quality of durable consumer goods.The fourth chapter is the empirical study of the demand scale of local market on the export quality of durable consumer goods.This chapter examines the impact of local market demand scale on export quality.Using the matching data of HS standard 6-digit product code and BEC durable consumer goods(code 61)in baci database,the export quality of durable consumer goods in different measurement units is calculated and estimated respectively.In addition to the PPP Adjusted GDP,different variables are used to reflect the local market demand for robustness test.At the same time,to control supply variables such as factor endowment and import competition,export share is also used to control the impact of the import scale of the destination country.First,the benchmark regression,then the fixed effect and random effect regression,and finally the robustness test with multiple methods.In addition to OLS and FGLS,WLS is also used for one-stage lag test.All models pass the test,and three local market size variables significantly affect the export quality of durable consumer goods.And the coefficient sign is positive.The coefficient is greater than 1,which conforms to the law of increasing returns to scale of local market effect.Chapter five is an empirical study on the impact of local market demand structure on the export quality of durable consumer goods.This chapter uses panel model to test the impact of demand structure on the quality of export products.In addition to grouping test and controlling individual effects,it also uses quantile regression to describe the impact of local market demand structure on different quantiles of durable consumer goods export quality.The data are respectively from baci database,WDI database,Payne table and world inequality database.Export data is matched by multiple classification standards,and invalid and abnormal values are eliminated.The export quality of durable consumer goods in different measurement units is calculated,and then the unit price of durable consumer goods in all countries in the world is normalized.Stepwise regression,classification test and other robustness tests are used to prove the fitness of the model and the robustness of the results;Quantile regression is used to observe the different effects of different quality levels on the demand structure of the local market.Chapter six is mechanism verification.According to Hayers' conditional process method,the influence direction and endogenous mechanism of local market demand and structure on the export quality of durable consumer goods are verified.The innovation induced by demand in the theoretical derivation is included as an endogenous mediator.Combined with the above research results,when the demand scale and structure of the local market play an interaction role on the coefficient and change the sign at the same time,the demand scale of the local market conforms to the setting of the moderator,which leads to the definition of the moderating effect with mediation.The dissertation then verifies the established econometric model.Group test is carried out to avoid gross error.The relative situation of China's evidence adopts the relative value of export quality and other variables of durable consumer goods exported to other 47 sample countries.The product level is represented by washing machines,refrigerators,air conditioners and microwave ovens to verify China,as a middle-class income country,how its local market demand affects the export quality of durable consumer goods.I.e.,to test how the performance of quality local market effects differs and how internal mechanism works.Final part is the conclusion,countermeasure and prospect of further study.Local market demand scale and demand structure induce innovation to promote product quality into the same system for research.After theoretical hypothesis,derivation and verification,relevant suggestions are put forward according to the conclusion,and future research is prospected.The main conclusions cover the following:First,the larger the scale of local market demand,the higher the quality of exports.Through the establishment of panel data,using mixed regression,fixed effect and random effect empirical test,it is found that the larger the demand scale of a country's local market,the higher the quality preference,the better the quality local market effect can play,and improve the quality of export products.This conclusion is still significant after using a variety of robustness analysis.The influence coefficient of a country's local market demand scale on the improvement of export quality is positive and all are greater than 1,which shows the obvious law of local market effect.With the increasing returns to scale and the existence of trade costs,enterprises are more specialized in the production and export of high-quality varieties.The theoretical proposition 1 proposed in this paper is verified.After grouping test,it is found that local market scale effect of such quality is more significant in high-income countries.It is further confirmed that to improve the quality of export products,a country must first expand the scale of local market demand,and focus on improving the level of per capita income.Second,the more average the demand structure of the local market,the higher the quality of exports.In the benchmark regression,the stepwise regression method is used to gradually bring different demand structure variables into the model,and the multiple methods are used for robust regression: grouping,changing key variables,replacing similar control variables and selecting different methods such as quantile regression.The results show that no matter what method is adopted,the demand structure of local market has a positive impact on the export quality of durable consumer goods.This provides strong test evidence for the theoretical proposition 2 proposed in this paper.Among them,the impact of the middle 60% of the population's income share is consistently positive in all models,and the local market scale effect is the largest(0.3703).Quantile regression was used to observe the different quantile effects of local market demand structure on export quality.It is found that the influence of local market demand scale and local market demand structure on export quality changes linearly,which is not consistent with the nonlinearity studied by scholars.However,the result coefficient of 80% of middle-income is slightly smaller than that of 60%,which shows that the realization of complete equality in society is not conducive to efficiency,and certainly not conducive to the export quality of durable consumer goods.It is consistent with the conclusion that the export quality can be improved by the moderate income distribution inequality,but the overall trend is still toward the direction of the more average distribution quality,the greater local market effect.After grouping test,it is found that the structural effect of high-income countries with such quality local market is more significant.It is still stable after controlling other supply factors affecting export quality.The combination of local market demand structure and local market demand scale has a significant impact on the export quality of durable consumer goods,but the overall effect is weak and the net effect is still positive.Third,local market demand induces innovation,which improves the quality of durable consumer goods exports,and innovation plays a mediating role.In the conceptual model of process moderation mechanism analysis,the mediating effect of innovation is significant.The empirical results of cross-border panel data show that after innovation,enterprises promote quality improvement through competitive effects and export high-quality products when technology improves and it boasts competitive advantage.The demand scale of local market not only moderates the direct effect of local market structure on export quality,but also moderates the input of innovation induced by local market(R&D)and the the output of that(Patent).The result says that both signs are positive.In the grouping test,the moderating effect of durable consumer goods exports of high-income countries is negative.Because the export quality of durable consumer goods in high-income countries is already high enough,they are inert to innovation input and output.Fourth,through the mediating role of innovation,the improvement of the export quality of China's durable consumer goods strongly induces innovation,so as to improve the export quality of durable consumer goods.In the above-mentioned mechanism verification model,by including China's relative data and China's durable consumer goods segmentation data to verify China's situation,it is found that China's local market demand has a significant inducing effect on innovation,which is much more significant than the results of the above-mentioned transnational evidence,and the sign is positive.The moderating effect of China's local market demand scale on the mediator is also significantly positive.However,the moderating effect of demand scale varies with the demand structure variables used: in the Gini coefficient model,which represents the demand inequality degree,the mediating effect of innovation is more significant,while the local market demand scale has the moderating effect on innovation output;but in the mid60 variable model,the moderating effect on Innovation input is more significant.In the individual effect test of high-income and low-income countries based on the income level of the destination countries,the export of durable consumer goods to high-income countries shows obvious moderating effect of innovation output.This proves the theoretical proposition 3 proposed,and also explains the phenomenon that the quality of China's exports to high-income countries is raising highly.The introduction time of durable consumer goods in China lags behind that in the United States for many periods,and the products with smaller demand elasticity lag behind;the intensity of innovation induced by local market demand of different subdivided products is different,for example,the higher the middle-income group is,the higher the moderating effect on innovation output is,and the higher the quality of refrigerator export is.Based on the comprehensive research results and conclusions,the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed:The first and formost is to continue to expand the size of local market demand to improve the export quality of durable consumer goods.Focusing on the cultivation of the overall size of the local market,the ultimate goal is to improve the national average income level,expand the "overlap" between high-end demand and the demand of foreign high-income countries.With this endogenous demand induced innovation function,China can get rid of the "chain master" position set by developed countries using their market forces and technological forces.Second,the government should further reform the income distribution policies conducive to the upgrading the quality of durables export,especially continue to expand the proportion of middle-income groups to enlarge the market base of innovation.With China's poverty alleviation,this group will continue to increase,forming a more reasonable "spinning type".But how can this advantage form demand competitive advantage? The government should strive to improve national income,expand the overall income base,and continue to encourage the expansion of local market demand,especially consumer demand.Third,enterprises should focus on cultivating their own market demand identification ability and increasing innovation investment.Under the mode of domestic demand driven export,local enterprises supply "quality demand" and "fine demand" products.Fourth,the government should play its regulatory role to control market failure and foster a good supply and consumption environment for local market demand. |
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