| Investment is not only an important part of short-term demand,but also the basis for the formation of long-term supply,and an important meeting point between economic growth and structural optimization.The history of economic growth and structural transformation in the past 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China shows that investment is an important variable that affects the economic structure.In the context of the continuous deepening of supply-side structural reform,the role of investment in structural adjustment is prominent.In the face of the maladjusted economic structure,we should regard investment as an important starting point for the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure,maintain an appropriate investment scale,actively adjust and optimize the investment structure,improve investment efficiency,and promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure in the course of development.It is an important meaning of economic policy for a long time in the future.Therefore,studying the important role of investment in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,hitting the key node of the transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure,can enrich the relevant theoretical research and provide theoretical support and policy support for the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.It has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the historical background of promoting supply-side structural reform and speeding up the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in China,this paper starts from testing the influence of investment scale and investment structure on the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure.This paper systematically reviews the history of the optimization and upgrading of investment and industrial structure in China,brings the changes of investment and industrial structure into a unified theoretical analysis framework,and systematically discusses the mechanism of investment affecting industrial structure.On this basis,the dynamic evolution process of the relationship between investment and industrial structure is quantitatively analyzed by using nonlinear panel threshold model,spatial econometric model,and synthetic tool variable method and so on.In addition to the introduction,this paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter discusses the theoretical basis of investment and industrial structure optimization.Based on the scientific definition of the related concepts of investment and industrial structure,this paper combs and evaluates the industrial structure indicators in the existing literature,and then systematically expounds the relevant theories of investment and industrial structure optimization.The second chapter constructs the theoretical framework of the change of investment and industrial structure,and brings the total investment and investment structure into the two-sector general equilibrium model under the neoclassical framework.Theoretically investigate the impact of total investment and investment structure on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.The third chapter reviews the course of the changes of China's investment and industrial structure,combs the changes of China's investment structure and industrial structure since the founding of the People's Republic of China,and systematically summarizes the laws and characteristics of the evolution of China's investment and industrial structure.The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the role of investment in the change of industrial structure based on panel threshold model and synthetic tool variable method.The fifth chapter constructs a variety of spatial weight matrices,calculates the spatial relationship between investment and industrial structure,and analyzes the spatial spillover effects of investment on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.The sixth chapter,according to the conclusion,puts forward some policy suggestions to give full play to the important role of investment in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure from the aspects of changing investment-driven model,optimizing investment structure and increasing regional investment cooperation.This paper adopts the research methods of quantitative and normative and empirical,focusing on the impact of total investment and investment structure on the optimization of industrial structure.The main conclusions are as follows: first,the total investment has a non-linear impact on industrial structure.When the investment rate is less than 17%,the expansion of the investment scale will reduce the degree of rationalization of the industrial structure.For every 1% increase in the investment scale,the degree of rationalization of the industrial structure will decrease by 3.86%.When the investment rate is between 17% and 34%,the expansion of the investment scale will increase the degree of rationalization of the industrial structure,and for every 1% increase in the investment scale,the degree of rationalization of the industrial structure will increase by 1.36%.When the investment rate is higher than 34%,for every 1% increase in investment scale,the degree of rationalization of industrial structure increases by 0.44%.The empirical analysis of the investment rate and the upgrading of the industrial structure shows that when the proportion of investment in the non-agricultural sector is less than 98.9%,the increase in the scale of investment has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure.For every 1% increase in the scale of investment,the degree of upgrading of the industrial structure has increased by 2.11%.When the proportion of investment in the non-agricultural sector exceeds 98.9%,the increase in the scale of investment has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure.For every 1% increase in the scale of investment,the degree of upgrading of the industrial structure decreases by 1.66%.Second,there are significant differences in the impact of investment structure on industrial structure.Among the three industrial investments,the tertiary industry investment has the greatest influence on the rationalization of the industrial structure,followed by the secondary industry investment and the primary industry investment.The investment in the secondary industry has the highest influence on the upgrading of the industrial structure,followed by the investment in the tertiary industry,and the lowest in the primary industry.There are significant temporal heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity in the impact of three industrial investments on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.Third,the impact of investment on industrial structure has a spatial spillover effect.Due to the existence of factors such as inter-regional industrial investment correlation,cross-regional industrial capital flow and "siphon effect",industrial agglomeration and diffusion caused by capital flow,and inter-regional investment competition,there is a spatial spillover effect of investment on industrial structure.The empirical results based on a variety of spatial weight matrices show that there are not only direct effects but also indirect effects of investment on industrial structure.The local effect of investment is significantly positive,and investment effectively promotes the rationalization and upgrading of local industrial structure.The spatial spillover effect of investment on industrial structure rationalization is significantly positive,but the spatial spillover effect on industrial upgrading is significantly negative.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: first,maintain a moderate investment rate.There are great differences in industrial structure and investment rate in different regions,so the investment rate should be adjusted according to local conditions to promote the optimization of industrial structure.Second,optimize the industrial investment structure.We will increase investment in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry.We should encourage more investment in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry,increase investment in mechanization and automation in the production process,build a platform for industry-university-research cooperation and exchange,and promote the research and development of core technologies and technology transformation.Provide a variety of financial support for the research and development of basic products that have a significant impact on the national economy,and when necessary,the government organizes a number of large enterprises and institutions to carry out pre-research and concentrated research on key products and cutting-edge technologies.We will vigorously develop modern service industries.It is inclined to modern service industry in the aspects of financial support,land examination and approval,tax preference and public service,so as to provide a good external market environment for the development of modern service industry.Actively expand the opening up of the service industry to the outside world,absorb foreign advanced service industry investment,and activate the vitality of China's modern service industry investment.Third,increase regional investment cooperation,enhance the complementarity of investment and industrial structure,attach importance to the spatial effect of industrial structure optimization,promote regional industrial division of labor and cooperation,promote inter-regional investment coordination,and strengthen the coordination of industrial structure optimization and upgrading. |
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