The Research On Effect Of Export Diversification On Economic Growth

Since the Reform and Opening up,export-oriented policies have played an important role in the rapid development of China's economy in the past 40 years.The volume of China's economic has achieved tremendous growth since the Reform and Opening up.With the rapid development of the economy,China has gradually developed into a strong trade nation.In 2018,China's exports of manufactured goods reached 2.35 trillion US dollars.However,with the current unstable pattern of international trade,there is a certain upward trend of trade protectionism.Some European and American countries such as the United States have adopted their own preferential policies,which poses certain challenges to the development of international trade.And all countries will face pressure from the weak economic growth due to weak trade growth.Our economy is facing changes in the external environment.Although the theory of comparative advantage believes that countries should approach the evolution of export specialization,the risk will be concentrated with the increase of export specialization on the background of the external environment instability.The risk exposure of a country will gradually expand and may have a negative impact on the healthy development of a country's economy.Historical development experience shows that developing countries may suffer negative effects when they are over-reliant on primary good exports,and the diversification of export commodities has long been regarded as an important tool to solve this problem.Therefore,re-examining the diversification of export is of great significance to the promotion of economic growth in developed and developing countries.Moreover,how to assess the effect of diversification of export commodities on economic growth is of practical significance in the background of new opening up.The first chapter is the introduction part,which analyzes the research background and the practical and theoretical significance of the topic.It outlines the academic influence on the diversification of export,the economic growth effect of export commodity diversification and the export from the perspective of economic growth volatility.The chapter introduces the main research framework and research methods used in this dissertation,and reviews the literature review,also introduces the structure of the dissertation.Finally,the chapter introduces the innovations and shortcomings of the dissertation.The second chapter is about the fundamental theory.This paper makes a brief analysis of the international trade theory and economic growth theory closely related to export commodity diversification and economic growth,as well as theory about effect of export diversification on economic growth.In this part,we mainly review the basic theory of economic growth.On the other hand,we review the international trade theory and introduce the comparative advantages.In addition,based on the theoretical basis and empirical research about the effect of export diversification on economic growth and economic growth volatility,this chapter combs the influence mechanism of export diversification on economic growth and economic growth rate stability,and provides empirical research on the economic growth promotion effect of export diversification under different research samples.The third chapter analyzes the current situation of China's export commodity diversification,and analyzes the current situation of the international export commodity diversification status and economic growth.It mainly analyzes the export characteristics.In the analysis of the status quo of commodity diversification,the regional division of countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” has been carried out,which helps to explore the current situation of China's diversification of export commodities for individual export market countries.The chapter analyzes the correlation between export commodity diversification and economic growth based on cross-country data.In this chapter,analysis method of export commodity diversification indexmainly used in this dissertation is export diversification index.Herfindahl index and Theil index are used in the empirical analysis.The main research content of Chapter 4 is the promotion effect of export commodity diversification on economic growth.Taking the cross-country data sample as the main research object,it analyzes whether the diversification of export commodities has a promoting effect on economic growth.From the analysis of multiple indices of export commodity diversification,quantitative analysis of whether product and partner diversification can promote growth,and whether knowledge spillover effects are generated by the expansion of export markets.The theoretical basis of this chapter is the theoretical model of Herzer and Nowak-Lehnmann(2006).The part attempts to expand the model to analyze the economic effects of export commodity diversification,including export commodity diversification and export partner diversification.In the fifth chapter,this chapter empirically analyzes the relationship between export commodity diversification and economic growth rate based on the analysis of the volatility of economic growth rate to investigating whether export commodity diversification is conducive to stabilizing economic growth rates.If the increase in the diversification of export commodities can reduce the volatility of a country's economic growth rate,then there may be a potential channel for export diversification to influence the economic growth.This chapter is primarily based on portfolio theory.This chapter conducts an empirical analysis based on cross-country data to explore the impact of export commodity diversification on the volatility of economic growth rates,and to distinguish the impact of the extensive margin(new product)and intensive margin(more volume)on economic growth.The sixth chapter analyzes the effect of export diversification on the export performance.The existing research mainly focuses on the diversification of the overall export which is the sum of all export lines.This may result in an economic growthpromoting effect that does not allow for a specific analysis of the country's export diversification for a particular trading partner.This chapter is based on China's export commodity diversification index for different export destinations,and empirically analyzes whether the export commodity diversification index of different export destination countries effectively improves China's export performance to the market.Therefore,it analyzes another potential channel of export commodity diversification affecting economic growth,and based on China's “The Belt and Road” strategic background,empirically analyzes whether the diversification of export commodities for countries along the “Belt and Road” is effective to promote China and the countries in the region.The analysis of export performance provides an empirical basis for relevant policy recommendations for the development of export with the countries.The seventh chapter is about the conclusion and policy recommendations.Based on the analysis of the current situation and results of empirical analysis,this dissertation systematically and comprehensively summarizes the conclusion of this chapter,gives a systematic conclusion related to the topic,and based on the conclusions,proposes how to improve the diversification of export commodities in the current economic environment.